Key market themes

关键市场主题

U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff increase on Chinese imports in May triggered the end of this year’s equity market recovery. While the stock market has since rebounded, the lasting impact can be seen in falling long-term government bond yields, the inverted U.S. yield curve, the slowdown in global trade and weak global manufacturing surveys. As a result, it now looks increasingly likely that the U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed) will cut interest rates in both July and September. A combination of Fed easing, China stimulus and trade compromise could make the recent yield-curve inversion a false signal. We will take the inversion much more seriously if it persists for a couple more months. At mid-year, it’s a worrying indicator that biases us toward caution.

今年5月，美国总统特朗普提高关税终结了今年股市的复苏。尽管股市自那以来已经反弹，但长期国债收益率下滑、美国收益率曲线反转、全球贸易放缓以及全球制造业调查疲弱，都是持续影响。因此，现在看来，美联储在7月和9月降息的可能性越来越大。美联储的宽松政策、中国的刺激措施和贸易缓和的结合，可能会让最近收益率曲线的反转成为一个错误信号。如果这种反转再持续几个月，我们将会更加认真地对待它。在年中，这是一个令人担忧的指标，使我们倾向于谨慎。