曼昆谈美国经济的方方面面

2020/03/12 12:42
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增长、教育、移民、医疗、党争……

Welcome to CONVERSATIONS.

欢迎收看“对谈”节目

I’m Bill Kristol and I’m joined, again – I think we’ve had one of these conversations, right,

我是比尔·克里斯托,今天我再次请到曾做客本节目的

by Greg Mankiw, Professor of Economics at Harvard,

格雷戈·曼昆,哈佛大学经济学教授

author of the bestselling economics textbook for a long time, right?

也是经久不衰的经济学教科书的主笔人

It’s amazing, what, 25 years or something like that?

太神奇了,已经畅销长达25年了对吧?

(屏幕上方注:即享誉学界的《经济学基础》,至今已出到第10版)

Yeah, that’s right.

是的,没错

Wow. That’s much more impressive than being a professor at Harvard. [Laughter].

哇!这可比当哈佛教授让人印象深刻多了[哄笑]

The real market is speaking there, right?

那可是真实的市场反响,对吧?

Yes, absolutely.

是,绝对是

And, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors under President George W. Bush,

他还曾在小布什政府中担任白宫经济顾问委员会主席

and many other senior positions too countless to mention.

以及不计其数的高级职位

So, really one of the most respected economists in the country and respected on both sides.

总之,他当之无愧是美国最受尊敬的经济学家,受到左右两派的尊崇

We talked, I think, when we had our first conversation a couple of years ago

我记得,前几年我们第一次做对谈时

about the surprising disregard for certain economic – well, what one would have thought would be certain economic truths and principles to some degree on both sides of the political spectrum.

曾探讨过政治领域当中左右两派对于某些经济学公理和原则的公然无视

And the situation has gotten worse, so we need to address this again.

现如今形势愈加恶化,亟需我们重拾这一话题

It has.

的确在不断恶化

And we need to do a better job this time, explaining to people what really is a problem to worry about,

这次我们得做到更好,要向民众阐释真正需要担忧的问题是什么

and why people may be falling in love with certain fake solutions and attractive-sounding things that wouldn’t work.

要让人们明白,为什么他们钟意的某些解决方案和计划,是外强中干的骗局

So, where to begin? There’s so much bad information out there, right?

所以,我们该从何谈起呢?外界充斥着太多伪劣消息了,对吧?

 

Well we’re in a situation now of tremendous polarization, including on economic policy,

当下我们身处政治极化严重的社会环境中,经济政策也不能幸免

but not among economists.

所幸经济学家还未卷入其中

If you talk to economists, they kind of range from center-left to center-right.

跟经济学家交流时你会发现,他们大都处在中间偏左和中间偏右的区间内

And when you get a bunch of economists in the room they’re more likely to agree than disagree with each other.

当一群经济学家聚在一起,他们更可能达成共识,而不是反对彼此的观点

Despite that fact, the political parties are pushing out to the extremes.

尽管如此,政治党派正在滑向极端立场

We have Donald Trump becoming very isolationist in his trade policy

唐纳德·特朗普在贸易政策上正成为不折不扣的孤立主义者

and you have Elizabeth Warren who’s becoming very populist in her attacks on the rich.

伊丽莎白·沃伦则在抨击富人的道路上扛起了民粹主义大旗

And so you have sort of both parties sort of drifting apart and going to the extremes.

你可以看到两党渐行渐远,滑向极端立场

And the economists tend to be left in the middle, being a little surprised that both political parties are abandoning them.

只余中间立场的经济学家惊讶地发现,自己被两党所抛弃

 

And so I suppose, to defend the political types, I could say,

如果要为政治极化辩护的话,我大概会说

well, you guys got it wrong.

“是你们这群人搞错了”

You know, all these promises you made,

经济学家许下的种种承诺都被证伪

it turned out globalization wasn’t so great,

事实证明,全球化并没带来多少好处

and markets don’t work, there’s increased income inequality, there’s wage stagnation,

市场失灵,收入不平等加剧,薪资增长停滞

there’s, I don’t know, problems. Big tech is monopolistic.

问题层出不穷,科技巨头占据垄断地位

I mean, maybe we shouldn’t listen so much to the economists.

我们大概是不该被经济学家牵着鼻子走

 

For sure we don’t get everything right.

当然,我们并非料事如神

But I think most of what we teach in Econ 101 or we can call it EC10 at Harvard,

但是我想在经济学入门课上(在哈佛课程中称为EC10)教授的多数内容

is basically right.

大体上仍然是正确的

The basic theory of supply and demand, what markets can do well, when markets need government intervention

供求关系的基础理论,何种市场表现最佳,何时市场需要政府干预

– I think that basic theory is still right.

我想基础理论仍是正确的

And I think, so our economists really do know a lot about how the economy works.

经济学家还是对经济运行背后的诸多原理有所了解的

I think there are two trends that are disturbing.

目前有两大趋势让人深感不安

We don’t have a full explanation for it, but it helps explain the sense of dissatisfaction.

虽然我们还不能对其做出完整的解释,但仍有助于理解民众的不满情绪

So one trend is slowing economic growth.

一大趋势是放缓的经济增速

Economic growth has not been as robust in the past 15, 20 years

经济增长不比15、20年前

as it was in the post-World War II era, more broadly.

(宽泛而言)不如二战战后时期那般稳健

That’s true here in the US, or globally?

只是美国在放缓,还是全球都如此?

Globally, in developed countries.

全球发达国家均是如此

3:17 We’ve seen very rapid growth in some of the developing world, in particular, like China and India.

部分发展中国家经历了非常高速的增长,特别是中国和印度

But in the developed world we’ve seen declining economic growth and we’ve see a widening income inequality.

但是发达国家的经济增速不断下滑,贫富差距持续拉大

So people with less skills

因此(另一大趋势是)技能水平较低的人

are not doing as well as people with more skills.

在经济状况上落后于技能水平较高的人

Now having said that, there’s good news too.

尽管如此,还是有好消息的

I don’t want to say it’s all bad news.

也不全是坏消息

We see sort of two pieces of good news.

大致有两条好消息

One is if you look at global poverty,

其一,如果你去看全球贫困状况

like the percentage of people living on less than a dollar or two dollars a day,

比如每天生活费低于1美元或2美元的人口百分比

it’s lower now than it’s ever been in human history.

现在这个数字比人类历史上的任何时候都要低

And it’s largely because rapid growth in Asia has pulled billions of people out of very, very deep poverty.

这多数归功于亚洲国家的迅猛增长,使得数以亿计的人摆脱赤贫

And that’s something that we should applaud.

我们应该为之鼓掌喝彩

The second thing is the United States is still doing pretty well by global standards.

其二,以全球标准来看,美国表现依旧出色

If you’re a person living at the poverty line in the United States, you are wealthier than 85 percent of people in the world.

一位生活在贫困线上的美国人,也比世界上85%的人更富有

So, maybe the U.S. economy is not living up to our aspirations,

因此,也许美国经济辜负了我们的期许

but it’s doing pretty well if you take a global or a historical perspective on it.

但从全球或历史角度而言,美国依旧表现出色

 

And so I guess one could say, okay, well that’s nice; but what damage could some of these bold proposals do?

我猜有人会说“好吧,那是不错。但是这些大胆提议又能造成什么损害呢?”

I mean, surely trade has had its downside, so maybe it needs to be re-thought some.

贸易肯定有它的负面影响,所以也许是时候对全球化做出反思了

And surely income inequality, as you just said, has increased and so why not a wealth tax?

而如你所言,收入不平等已然加剧,所以为什么不推行财富税呢?

So maybe we should just go through some of these proposals.

或许我们应该把这些提议好好梳理一遍

And what is true in them, or what is there useful in them,

哪些提议包含真知灼见,哪些提议将会行之有效

and how much of it are really false prescriptions for what ails us?

而又有哪些是治标不治本的“假药”?

 

Well let’s first talk about trade.

那我们先来聊聊贸易吧

The basic lesson about economic trade is that free trade expands the size of the economic pie.

经济贸易的基础课程指出,自由贸易能做大经济蛋糕

But while doing that, it’s also creating winners and losers.

但在做大蛋糕的同时,也会分出赢家输家

So not everybody is going to benefit.

所以并非人人从中受益

And so in particular when the United States opens up to trade with the rest of the world,

特别是当美国敞开大门与世界各地开展贸易时

we tend to import goods produced with unskilled labor,

我们倾向于进口非技术劳工生产的货物

because unskilled labor is abundant abroad.

因为非技术劳工在海外非常充足

And that’s going to tend to reduce the demand for unskilled labor here,

这就会减少对非技术劳工的国内需求

and increase the demand for our skilled laborers.

并加大对技术工人的需求

Because we tend to export things that are intensive in skilled labor.

而因为我们倾向于出口技术密集型产品

So that’s going to exacerbate income inequality.

这又让收入不平等进一步加剧

We could reverse that by retreating away from international trade,

我们可以通过退出国际贸易扭转上述趋势

but that the overall pie is going to shrink.

但是整块经济蛋糕将因此缩水

And so we should think about

因此,我们应当思考的是

ways to distribute the economic pie more fairly, but not shrink it.

如何在不让蛋糕缩水的同时,更加公平地分配经济蛋糕

Having said that, let me also say that

这是一方面,但我还想补充的是

trade is probably not the main reason that income inequality has gone up.

贸易也许并非加剧收入不平等的主因

Most economists would give more weight to technology.

大多数经济学家眼中,科技才是罪魁祸首

And there’s a great book by two of my Harvard colleagues, Claudia Goldin and Larry Katz,

我的哈佛同事克劳迪亚·戈尔丁和劳伦斯·卡茨教授出过一本著作

it’s called The Race Between Education and Technology.

书名叫《教育与科技的角逐》

And their basic story is that technology tends to increase inequality because technology tends to replace unskilled workers,

他们的基本论点是,科技常会加剧不平等,因为科技往往会淘汰非技术工人

and tends to increase the demand for skilled workers who are using the technology.

进而增加对能够使用这门技术的技术工人的需求

So you can sort of think of me becoming more productive because I don’t need a secretary to type my papers,

你可以想象成,因为一个文字处理软件就能轻松录入论文

I could just do it with a word processor.

我不再需要一个秘书来做这件事,我的生产力也随之提高

Or think of a bank – we replace the teller with an automatic teller machine,

或者想象一家银行——我们用自动柜员机取代柜员

and that makes the bank overall more productive and better for customers,

这提高了银行的总体生产力,提升了客户服务

but reduces the demand for tellers, which is a relatively unskilled job.

但是减少了对作为非技术岗位的柜员的需求

So, what economists call skill-biased technological change

因此,经济学家所谓的“技能偏向性”技术进步

is going to tend to make the world less equal.

加剧了世界的不平等程度

The other side of this tug of war is education because education turns the unskilled workers into skilled workers.

这场拉锯战的另一头是教育,因为教育将非技术工人培养成技术工人

And the Goldin-Katz story is that from basically World War II to the 1970s,

戈尔丁和卡茨的论点是,从二战到1970年代

education was winning this race between education and technology

教育在与科技的角逐中曾占据上风

and we were becoming more equal as a society.

我们作为一个社会整体也变得更加平等

And then sometime in the 1970s, educational advancement slowed down and technology started winning that race.

直到1970年代的某个时间点,教育进步滞缓,科技开始占据上风

And so if you believe that, what does it mean?

如果你相信他们的论点,这意味着什么呢?

Well we probably shouldn’t change technological progress.

也许我们不应该改变技术进步

We probably don’t even have the capabilities to do that.

我们可能压根没有能力去改变它

It’d be nice if we could create technologies that would

如果我们能创造出提高非技术工人生产力的技术

increase the productivity of unskilled workers rather than replacing them.

而不是淘汰他们的技术,那是再好不过

But innovators invent what they think of,

但是创新人才想到什么就发明什么

and it tends to be easier to automate unskilled jobs.

将非技术岗位的工作内容自动化也更为简单易行

But what we really need to do is focus on education, to get more of the unskilled workers into skilled workers.

但是我们真的需要对教育加大关注,让更多非技术工人成为技术工人

And that’s why, from my perspective, actually increase educational attainment is probably the most important priority.

这也是为什么在我看来促进教育进步是当务之急

It’s easier said than done.

说得轻巧, 谈何容易

The reform of the educational system is not an easy task, but that should probably be where the priority is,

教育体系改革并非易事,但不论是提高经济增长,还是缩小收入差距

both in terms of increasing growth and on reducing income inequality.

改革教育都应是重中之重

 

How about, since you’ve sort of acknowledged the income inequality –

既然你刚刚谈到了收入不平等——

I think it’s just a fact, right? It has increased.

所以这已经是一个既成事实了对吧?收入不平等的差距的确拉大了

Yeah, absolutely.

对,毫无疑问

Now, has mobility also decreased?

不过,流动性也降低了吗?

I mean that would be worse I think, if there were both more inequality and less economic mobility.

如果收入不平等加剧的同时经济流动性也降低,情况恐怕会更糟

 

Oh, I think the mobility story is interesting.

我认为流动性 (mobility) 的话题很有意思

There’re two different notions of mobility.

流动性有两种

There’s what’s called relative mobility and absolute mobility.

分别是相对流动性和绝对流动性

So let me tell you what they are.

我来解释一下它们分别是什么意思

Relative mobility is, what’s the likelihood of somebody born into the 20th percentile making it into the 80th percentile,

相对流动性是指,出生于收入分布第20百分位数的个人跻身第80百分位数

or moving among the percentiles of the income distribution?

抑或是在收入分布各百分位数之间上下流动的可能性

That’s called a relative mobility.

这就叫做“相对流动性”

That has not changed. That’s been relatively stable.

相对流动性没有发生变化,一直处在相对平稳的水平

What has changed is what’s called absolute mobility, in the literature.

发生变化的,是在学术文献中所谓的“绝对流动性”

And what absolute mobility is, what’s the probability that you will earn a higher incomes than your parents did?

绝对流动性是指,个人比父辈赚取更高收入的可能性

And that has gone down.

这种可能性降低了

And the reason relative mobility –

相对流动性平稳的原因是——

We’re talking in America, the USA?

我们是在说美国对么?美利坚合众国?

This is in the United States, yeah.

对,是美国

We have the best data on the United States.

我们掌握的美国数据质量最好

And a lot of this stuff has been done by my colleague at Harvard, Raj Chetty.

这些研究很多是由我的哈佛同事拉杰·切蒂完成的

And so you might say, well how can absolute mobility go down if relative mobility is staying the same?

你可能会问,如果相对流动性维持不变,绝对流动性为什么会降低?

They seem like they’re very related concepts, and they are.

两者似乎是相关的概念,它们也确实存在关联

But absolute mobility is also affected by the other two trends I’ve talked about,

但是我先前提及的两大趋势也影响着绝对流动性

which is rising inequality and slower economic growth.

即加剧的不平等和放缓的经济增长

So even if relative mobility stays the same, but we get slower growth,

即便相对流动性维持不变,一旦经济增长放缓

then the probability of you doing better than your parents is going to go down.

你“青出于蓝而胜于蓝”的概率还是会随之降低

And if most of the growth is accruing to people at the top of the income distribution,

如果大部分经济增长都进到了收入分布顶层人群的口袋里

then also the probability of you doing better than your parents is going down, since it’s only the few people at the top that are getting the benefits.

你“胜于蓝”的概率同样会因此降低,因为只有分布顶层的一小撮人获益

So, relative mobility, people churning around in the income distribution, is pretty much the same;

因此,虽然相对流动性、即在收入分布中的排位上下移动的概率,几乎没有变化

but it matters more because the gap between the people at the top and people at the bottom has grown so much.

但是绝对流动性更为重要,因为顶层人群和底层人群之间的差距不断拉大

 

So my answer to that is, so we should really want policies that increase broad-based economic growth.

为了解决这一问题,我们真正希望看到的政策,应当促进基础广泛的经济增长

Yes, we should.

对,理应如此

If we know a way to do that.

如果我们能够找到这样一种方法的话

Well, I think –

我认为——

And do we know how to do it?

这种方法我们已经找到了吗?

Well, education.

就是教育

Yes.

是的

I mean, education increases growth because it makes workers more productive.

我的意思是,教育之所以能够促进经济增长,是因为它让工人更具生产力

And by turning the unskilled workers into the skilled workers it means they get the benefits of the skills.

通过将非技术工人培养成技术工人,他们就可以享受技能带来的好处

It also by the way – when people get educated, it even benefits unskilled workers,

同时,一旦人们广泛接受教育,非技术工人也能获益

because the unskilled workers have fewer other workers to compete with.

因为非技术工人的竞争对手变少了

Right.

的确如此

So, and by reducing the supply of the unskilled, the unskilled wages should go up as well.

通过减少非技术工人的数量,他们的薪资也会上涨

So, education really seems to be the magic bullet;

教育的确像是一味灵丹妙药

but trying to figure out how to get more people through college and high school is not easy.

但是想出让更多人接受大学或高中教育的方法并非易事

 

So, I’d suppose if I were Elizabeth Warren I would say, “Well typical of economists,

如果我是伊丽莎白·沃伦,我会说“经济学家就会这点把戏”

they want to say, hey, let’s fix education.

“他们就会说‘我们得改革教育’”

That’s someone else’s job.

“可那是其他人的工作”

But why don’t we just get – address some of this directly?

“我们为什么不能直接对症下药呢?”

What about a wealth tax, for example?”

“比如说推行财富税?”

 

Oh, yeah, okay, well, that’s right.

是的,好吧,忘了还有这茬

So, the idea of education is fixing the income inequality that’s created by the market.

教育的目的是解决市场造成的收入不平等

You know, we want people to be able to earn more.

我们希望民众有能力赚更多的钱

But you might say well if they can’t do that, let’s fix the outcomes.

但是你可能会说,“如果他们赚不到更多的钱,我们就去调整所得”

The outcomes are given, then maybe we can redistribute the outcomes after the fact.

“所得是给定的,那么也许我们可以在事后对所得进行再分配”

Right.

是的

And we do that some already.

我们其实已经在这么做了

We do some, absolutely.

一点没错,我们已经在做了

With a progressive income tax and so forth.

通过累进所得税制等手段

Yeah, there’s an income tax credit, for example and it’s very important for helping people at the bottom.

对,例如所得税抵免,就在帮助底层人群上颇有建树

And if you look at sort of measures of inequality,

如果去看衡量不平等程度的一些指标

inequality has gone up less if you look post-tax and transfer, and if you look pre-tax and transfer

在征税与转移支付之前与之后,不平等加剧的速度已经放缓

because we have expanded things like the earned income tax credit.

因为我们已经加大了诸如所得税抵免的政策力度

So the question is why don’t we do more of that?

问题是我们为什么不多开展一些那样的工作?

And maybe we should, actually, and the question is, which tools should we use?

也许我们应该多多开展,但问题是我们应该使用什么工具?

There’s sort of two bold proposals out there being debated right now.

现在有两个大胆的提议受到公众热议

I think one of them is a good and plausible idea, and the other is kind of a crazy idea.

我认为其中一个是合理的好想法,而另一个则有些疯狂

The crazy idea, from my perspective, is the wealth tax because I think it’s going to be very, very hard to implement.

在我看来,财富税就是那个疯狂的想法,因为推行起来困难重重

Many European countries have tried it, and most of them have given it up.

许多欧洲国家都做过尝试,大多数最后都放弃了

And there’s a whole variety of problems with it.

财富税会伴随着层出不穷的问题

So for example, suppose I own a chain of dry cleaners or hardware stores or something.

例如,假设我是连锁干洗店、五金店或是其他什么的企业主

That’s my privately held business.

那是我私人所有的企业

What’s the value of that?

怎么去计算它的价值呢?

You could just sort of add up the value of my merchandise and the real estate I own,

你可以把我名下的商品及不动产的价值潦草相加

but the truth is most of what I have is probably goodwill, which is a very intangible kind of thing

但事实上我拥有的绝大部分是商誉,是一种无形资产

the value of the business as an ongoing concern.

也就是作为一家持续经营的企业的会计价值

Is the government going to have to go in there and try to evaluate the value of this business every year?

难道政府每年都得进驻企业去评估它的价值吗?

and how are they going to do that?

政府又如何能做到这一点?

They do that a little bit every once in a lifetime when they – with the estate tax.

通过征收遗产税,政府在每个人的一生中算上那么一次就足够了

Right.

是的

And that makes it – but people who’ve studied the estate tax know that’s pretty difficult.

但研究过遗产税的人都知道,遗产清算的过程有多么麻烦

The estate tax is, in some sense, a negotiated tax between you and the IRS.

从某种意义上讲,遗产税是你和美国国税局之间的协商税

Do you want every small business to have to negotiate every year with the IRS over what the value of its business is?

你想让每家中小企业年年去跑国税局,协商企业当年的价值多少吗?

And there’s no obvious way to mark to market because they’re not –

也没有直截了当的办法将企业按市值计价,因为它们没有——

Because there’s no market.

因为没有市场

This business isn’t for sale.

这家企业不出售

Yeah, that’s right.

对,就是这个意思

And if you put it for sale, you could.

你要出售这家企业,才能估算它的价值

Yes.

是的

And if you have – you know, for Jeff Bezos it’s easy because he has Amazon stock

如果你有——这对杰夫·贝佐斯而言是件易事,因为他持有亚马逊股票

and that way we can value it, there’s a market for that.

而亚马逊作为上市公司,我们可以由此计算出它的价值

But for a lot of closely-held businesses, there is no market.

但是对于诸多私人所有的企业,根本没有市场可言

And it’s not like you can sort of put your chain of seven different hardware stores on the market and see what the price is.

你没法把手上的七家连锁五金店放到市场上,看看到底值多少钱

Right.

是的

So, the valuation issue becomes very, very difficult.

所以估值问题极为棘手

So I actually think the wealth tax is a non-starter.

也正因此,我真心认为财富税根本无从下手

I see why it has political appeal, because it, as described by Elizabeth Warren,

我能理解它所具有的政治吸引力,因为正如伊丽莎白·沃伦所言

it’s going to only affect 0.1 percent of the population.

财富税只会影响0.1%的人口

So if you tell the 99.9 percent that they’re going to get free stuff,

所以如果你告诉其他99.9%的人,发放给他们的免费午餐

paid for by the 0.1 percent, that sounds attractive.

将由0.1%的人来买单,听起来自然很吸引人

But it’s probably not realistic.

但这可能并不现实

 

What I’ve always sort of – but why it’s always slightly appealed to me, I’ve got to say,

但我不得不承认,就连我都对财富税有点心动

is – is in some sense don’t you – in some ways don’t you think it makes more sense though than the income tax?

某种角度而言,你不认为它比所得税更为合理吗?

I mean, theoretically if you – leaving aside this rather big implementation problem –

从理论上讲,如果撇开如何落实的大问题不谈

taxing people’s wealth rather than their income makes a certain amount of sense

对人们的财富而不是他们的所得征税更合情理

because the income is stuff they’re getting each year, which you don’t –

因为所得是人们的岁入,你不能——

 

I’m not so sure of that.

我并不认同这一点

I’m going to go back to the other good proposal in a second.

稍后我会继续探讨之前另一个好提议

Okay.

好的

But let me at least talk about this issue.

但让我先就这事说道说道

Let’s imagine you have two people who make the same income.

设想一下收入相同的两个人

So I have two CEOs, both of which make $10 million dollars a year and so they’re in the top 0.1 percent.

比如说两位CEO,年收入均为1千万美元,属于顶层0.1%人群

And one of them says okay, I want to take my $10 million dollars a year and have lavish parties, fly a private jet

其中一位选择用这每年1千万美元花天酒地,买架私人飞机

– I’m going to blow it.

——过大手大脚的生活

And the other one says I want to accumulate it and invest in small businesses

另一位则想攒下这笔钱,投资中小企业

and eventually leave something to my kids and grandchildren and nephews and nieces and give some to my alma mater.

最后留下一笔遗产给我的子孙后代,捐些钱给自己的母校

The wealth tax says the second guy should pay more taxes than the first guy.

按照财富税的算法,第二位CEO要比第一位缴纳更多的税

So to me, I don’t –

要我说,我不觉得——

So it penalizes savings.

财富税会惩罚储蓄行为

It penalizes savings.

它会惩罚储蓄行为

 

And the counter-argument, I guess, is that if someone, two people make $10 million a year

我能想到的反方观点是,假设两个人年收入均为1千万美元

and one guy already has a billion dollars, it matters to him less, obviously.

而其中一人已经有1亿美元资产,那这对他来说当然就没那么重要

I mean, the $10 million increment is less important.

我是说,这1千万美元的增量就没那么重要

It seems a little unfair to tax them the same, I guess,

那么对这两人征收相同的税额似乎有失公允

the one guy who’s making his first $10 million and the person who’s making his hundredth $10 million.

一个人在赚他的第一笔1千万美元,而另一个人在赚第100笔1千万美元

Or maybe that’s a little silly, I don’t know.

这么说也许有点傻,我也不太确定

 

Let me go back to – maybe the proposal that actually I like.

要不我们还是——还是来探讨我真正认同的提议吧

Okay.

At least is worth thinking about and that’s the proposal of Andrew Yang.

这个提议至少值得考虑,那就是杨安泽的提议

Now I’m not here to endorse Andrew Yang, but I think his basic idea at least seems workable to me.

我不是在这里为杨安泽背书,不过在我看来他的基本想法至少是可行的

(屏幕上方注:本视频发布于1月11日,杨安泽已于2月11日宣布退选)

I mean, his idea is to put a value added tax, which is basically a flat consumption tax

他的想法是推行增值税,本质上是一种单一消费税

and use it to finance universal basic income, so everybody gets a lump sum back.

借此为全民基本收入计划融资,因而人人都会拿回一笔钱

That, I think, could work in the sense that we know value added tax has worked in much of Europe.

我认为这一方法行之有效,因为我们知道增值税在许多欧洲国家顺利落实

It’s a fairly efficient way to collect revenue.

这是一种征收税款的高效途径

That’s why many European countries use it and have kept using it for many, many years.

这也是为什么许多欧洲国家多年来一以贯之地推行着增值税

Universal basic income is a pretty easy thing to implement –

全民基本收入是非常容易落实的计划——

everybody gets a check, they do it in Alaska, right, with the oil revenue.

给每个人一张支票,阿拉斯加就是采取这一方式返还石油税收的

So the whole thing would work and the whole thing would be progressive.

所以整个计划合理可行,而且将采取累进制

It’d be like sort of a super duper earned income tax credit.

有点像加强版的所得税抵免

Although it does require you work, everybody would get it.

尽管它要求你参加工作,劳者即得

But it’s basically a way to redistribute resources

但大体上这是一种资源再分配的途径

from people high up in the income distribution towards people at the bottom.

将收入分布中上层人群的资源再分配到底层人群手中

To me, that’s attractive in part because I think it would work, but also in part because of the distinction between the two CEOs,

该提议吸引我之处不仅在于它的可行性,还在于对两类CEO的区别对待

one of which is spending lavishly and consuming a lot and the other which is saving to give money to his alma mater.

一类挥霍无度,消费成癖,另一类勤俭节约,为母校捐款

It’s going to penalize the guy who’s spending, who is living the lavish lifestyle more.

而该提议能够惩罚消费无度,过着骄奢淫逸生活的人

And I think that’s a good thing.

我认为这是一件好事

So I think the consumption tax aspect is quite desirable.

因此,我认为消费税是非常可取的方案

The universal basic income part kind of makes sense as a way to help people at the bottom.

而提议中全民基本收入的部分,在帮助底层人群方面也很合清理

This idea, by the way, has been floating around for a very long time.

顺便说一句,其实这个想法已经存在很长时间了

During the Nixon Administration, there was a talk about this.

在尼克松政府时期,就曾有过相关讨论

Right.

是的

And I remember even before that, Milton Friedman talked

我记得,甚至在那之前,米尔顿·弗里德曼在1960年代初

about the negative income tax in his book in the early ’60s, Capitalism and Freedom.

出版的《资本主义与自由》中,也提到了负所得税的概念

So this idea of a universal basic income or a negative income tax has been floating around for a long time.

所以全民基本收入计划或负所得税的想法由来已久

And so to me, actually that might –

对我而言,该提议实际上比——

You think that would be preferable to the –

你更青睐该提议而不是——

I mean, so I think the earned income tax credit kind of become a version of that where it’s limited to people’s labor.

我是说,听起来全民收入其实就是一种所得税抵免,只是局限于人们的劳动所得

It does.

确实如此

Yeah, but you have to work some to get – you have to work some to get it.

但是你必须参加工作——不劳不得

Which is a good thing though, you would argue, right? Or not, I don’t know.

不过你肯定会说这是一件好事,对吗?也许不是,我也不清楚

 

The system we have now, the social safety net we have now says

我们现有的社保体系、社会安全网的运作方式是

“okay, we’re going to distinguish between the deserving poor and the undeserving poor.”

“我们得把应得到救助的穷人和不值得救助的穷人区分开来”

So if you work hard but have low wages – well, you’re deserving.

所以如果你兢兢业业工作但薪资微薄的话,你就是应得到救助的穷人

Or if you’re disabled and you can’t work, then you’re kind of deserving.

如果你因残疾丧失了工作能力,你也应得到救助

If it’s a period of high unemployment, we’ll extend your unemployment insurance benefits, well then you’re kind of deserving.

如果在高失业率时期,我们向你发放了失业救济金,你也应得到救助

But other people aren’t deserving.

但是其他人不值得救助

So it requires the government to draw these distinctions between the deserving and the undeserving.

这就要求政府区分应得到救助和不值得救助的人

Does the government really have that ability to sort of fine-tune the social safety net in that way?

政府真的有能力按照这种要求去微调社会安全网吗?

I think it’s hard to know.

我们难以知晓

I mean, what if somebody has a serious mental illness? what if they have serious back pain, which is very hard to diagnose?

如果某人患有严重的心理疾病呢?如果他们饱受背痛折磨,但难以得到诊断呢?

I think just distinguishing between the deserving and the undeserving is a very difficult thing for the government to do.

对政府而言,单单区分应得到救助和不值得救助的人便是棘手难题了

Now some people object to the idea of well,

现在有些人反对推行全民基本收入,他们会问

what if somebody just wants to spend all their time surfing?

如果就是有人想把这笔钱都花在冲浪上呢?

Right, they’re fully able –

是的,他们工作能力健全

Yeah, the lazy surfer kid of upper middle class parents,

是啊,比如中上层阶级家庭培养出来的冲浪小孩,只想好吃懒做

should he get our tax money, so to speak?

他应该分得纳税人的钱吗?

Yeah, exactly.

对,就是这种问题

So I kind of understand that.

我能理解他们的意思

To me, that doesn’t strike me as big a problem as the government trying to have to decide well, you’re disabled.

但我认为与此相比,让政府鉴定某人是否残疾才是大问题

You say you have back pain, but we can’t really diagnose it, so you’re not disabled so we’re not going to help you.

你说你背痛,但是我们无法做出诊断,所以你不是残疾人,我们不会帮助你

So I’ve always been – ever since I read it, Milton Friedman’s book when I was a student –

因此我一直以来——自从我在学生时代读到米尔顿·弗里德曼的著作——

I’ve always been attracted by the negative income tax, universal basic income idea because of its simplicity.

我就一直为负所得税,即全民基本收入计划的简洁明了所着迷

And really, it takes the government out of people’s lives, including the lives of the poor.

事实上,这些政策让政府不用再插手人民的生活,包括穷人的生活

No, I think Charles Murray has endorsed a version of this –

是不用再插手了,我记得查尔斯·默里曾经鼓吹过类似的方案——

(屏幕上方标注:查尔斯·默里是美国政治学家,他在著作《失地: 1950-1980年的美国社会政策》中讨论了美国的福利制度)

Yes.

是的

But then he has always said – but you need to get rid of all these other programs from his point of view

不过当时他常说——在他看来还得取缔所有其他福利计划

from a sort of libertarian point of view.

只余全民基本收入,至少是从他的自由主义视角来看

Yes. And Yang proposed a little bit of that if you accept the –what he calls the freedom dividend.

没错,而杨安泽的提议也有点这个意思,如果你接受了他所谓的“自由分红”

If you accept his freedom dividend, then you’re not eligible for certain other programs.

如果你接受了他的“自由分红”,那你就没有资格再参与某些其他福利项目

So I don’t think he goes the entire way that Charles Murray wants to go, but there’s something of that in the –

因此,我认为杨安泽不会重走查尔斯·默里的老路,但两者确有重合之处——

 

And there’s something to be said, I suppose, for – I mean, when you have these other programs and you get endless disputes,

我想应该对此做点补充——其他那些福利项目总是有无穷无尽的争议

gaming of the system, what is disability

还有人利用漏洞例如对残疾的判断标准,从中牟取好处

and you don’t want to be hard-hearted and say no to this person,

你也不想铁石心肠地对这样的人说“不”

but then someone else fakes it and then you’ve got some government person or doctor having to certify something.

但是如果有人假扮残疾,你还得找政府官员或医生来做认证

And then the doctor is sort of complicit in the system.

有时做认证的医生也在这当中沆瀣一气

 

Yeah, exactly.

是的,没错

And one thing we learned is that once people become disabled, even when the economic conditions get better,

我们还知道一件事,那就是一旦人们获得残疾认证,即使后续经济情况好转

they might be able to work part-time to do it, they are disinclined to do it because they’ve already established themselves as disabled.

他们也只会做做兼职工作,因为他们认定自己无法正常工作

Whereas this universal basic income tax is no we’re not going to judge you

而在全民基本所得税制下,我们不会再去对你做评判

and if you want to come back in the labor force when you want to, fine.

只要你想重新加入劳动力市场,就大可回来,没有问题

So to me, actually, the idea makes sense.

所以在我看来,这种想法合乎情理

It would be a pretty radical change from where we are, I understand that.

这会给当前制度带来剧变,这我也理解

But I think unlike the Elizabeth Warren thing, which is also a radical change,

但是与同样会带来剧变的伊丽莎白·沃伦的提议相比

this one I could see working whereas Elizabeth Warren’s wealth tax, I just don’t see.

全民基本收入的提议在我看来切实可行,而伊丽莎白·沃伦的财富税看不到前途

 

It’s like this kind of headline, “the conservative economist endorses giving money away to everyone –

新闻头条大概会这样写“保守派经济学家盛赞全民放款”

the lazy surfers”, that’s good

“懒惰的冲浪者也可分得一杯羹”

But it seems to me the distinction is partly, as you say, you think the Elizabeth Warren tax wouldn’t work, the wealth tax wouldn’t work.

但在我看来,两者的区别,如你所言,部分在于伊丽莎白·沃伦的财富税行不通

But also there’s kind of a distinction in the way you are thinking about these taxes, right?

但还有部分区别在于你对这些税种的思考方式,对吗?

I mean, one of them is, I don’t know how to put this now exactly.

我是说,我也不知道怎么表达清楚

I mean – well, maybe there isn’t a distinction.

好吧,也许根本没有区别

I’m trying to think –

我是在想——

Well, it seems to me that the –

在我看来似乎——

You’re letting the market work in the first place, and then saying but look, some people, there should be a better safety net for the people at the bottom.

你是首先放手让市场运作,然后再考虑怎样为底层人群提供更完善的社会安全网

Yes.

是的

And that some people at the top are paying, in effect, a higher progressive, what a VAT would be or a sales tax.

而本质上这由顶层人群缴纳更高水平的某种累进增值税或者销售税

And to those people it would sort of just be an additional income –

对这些人来说不过是多了一项所得税——

An additional consumption tax.

一种额外的消费税

So if you’re buying, if you’re rich and you’re buying that yacht, you’re going to pay the Value Added Tax on that yacht.

如果你很有钱,要去买艘游艇,那么你将要为这游艇支付增值税

Right.

So it’s sort of “let the market do its thing, but then correct some of the excessive effects of it.”

这有点像“让市场自由运作,然后矫正这带来的一些过度影响”

Whereas with the Elizabeth Warren thing seems more intrusive somehow.

相比之下,伊丽莎白·沃伦的提议更具侵入性

It’s a real – it’s really changed,

它是真的会改变人们的习惯

people who are just sitting there saving their money, are not just paying taxes on the interest or on the dividends or on the capital gains as they do today,

那些节约储蓄的人不仅要像现在一样为利息、分红或资本收入缴税

but somehow are marking to market and having to give the government a chunk of their actual resources.

他们的财产还要被莫名其妙地估成市价,并向政府上缴当中的大块资源

 

The people who are in favor of the Warren wealth tax seem to have this idea that vast sums of assets are pernicious in and of themselves.

支持沃伦财富税的人似乎认为,巨额资产本质上是有害的

Right.

是的

They really want to get rid –

他们是真的想消灭——

read the work of Thomas Piketty and Emmanuel Saez, Gabriel Zuckerman,

读读托马斯·皮凯蒂、伊曼纽尔·赛斯和加布里埃尔·祖克曼的作品

they really kind of want to get rid of billionaires.

他们是真的想消灭亿万富翁

They somehow think that people sitting on vast sums of money is somehow a bad thing.

不知何故,他们认定有人坐拥巨额资产是一件坏事

I don’t look at that and see it’s a bad thing, particularly.

我并不觉得这是一件坏事

I want to help people at the bottom.

我渴望帮助底层人群

I’m much more focused on what we can do to help people at the bottom,

我把精力更多放在能够帮助底层人群的行动上

which I think is what the Yang thing does.

我想杨安泽的提议也志在于此

Whereas if somebody wants to sit on a vast – if Warren Buffet wants to spend,

然而如果有人坐拥巨额——如果沃伦·巴菲特想花钱

he’s sitting on, I don’t know, $100 billion dollars or so,

我不知道他有多少钱,假设有1千亿美元左右

if he wants to sort of sit on that and invest it during his lifetime,

如果他想坐拥这笔资产,一辈子做做投资

live modestly and then eventually give his money to charity,

过过丰而不奢的日子,最后将钱捐给慈善组织

which is basically what he’s planning to do, I don’t see any problem with that.

这恰恰是他计划做的事,我看不出这有什么问题

I mean, that does not to me seem – a problem that needs a fixing.

我是说对我而言,这不是一个需要矫正的问题

It seems like it’s a fine thing for society.

对社会而言,这似乎是一件好事

I’m more worried about people at the bottom who are losing their jobs, sometimes to trade, but more often to technology.

我更担忧底层人群失业,有时是因为贸易,更多时候是因为技术的发展

I mean, to give you an example, there will be self-driving trucks probably in our lifetime.

举个例子,也许我们能见证无人驾驶卡车的问世

Several million truck drivers will be out of work, perhaps.

那么数以百万的卡车司机将面临失业

What are we going to do for those people? I don’t think it’s an easy – it’s not going to be an easy problem.

我们能为他们做些什么?我不认为这是轻易能够——这将是个难题

Are we going to decide okay, who can find another job, who can get another job?

难道我们就放手让他们自生自灭,在劳动力市场上先到先得?

But otherwise, I think universal basic income, we’ll give you at least something.

而如果有全民基本收入计划,我想我们至少能给你点什么

We’re not going to pay you as much as you earned as a truck driver,

我们给不了你开卡车时赚的那么多钱

but at least you have some safety net to fall back on when you get unemployed from your truck driving job.

但是至少在你失去卡车司机这份工作时,有个安全网能够接住你

Are you optimistic about job retraining and those kinds of programs?

你对职业再培训等类似项目持乐观态度吗?

That would be another way of dealing with people who lose their jobs because of automation?

这能为解决因自动化造成的失业另辟蹊径吗?

I think we need to think hard about how to do that.

我认为我们需要绞尽脑汁想想对策

I don’t think the track record there is great.

我认为再培训过往的成绩并不亮眼

And so the question is how do you encourage lifetime learning? I think that’s an important thing to do.

因此问题在于你如何鼓励人们终生学习?我觉得这一点至关重要

But I think it’s, again, easier said than done.

但我觉得这事还是说得轻巧,谈何容易

 

How about economic growth generally?

那么大体上的经济增长又如何呢?

I mean, how much are we stuck in, for whatever reason,

无论事出何因,当下这个比预想中更慢、甚至还不如过去的低增长环境

a slower growth world than we thought we would be in or that we were in once?

还要持续多久?

Was that just a weird product of post-World War II and so forth,

这是二战战后一系列事件留下的奇怪产物吗?

both in the labor force, women coming to the labor force and stuff

劳动力结构也发生了变化,女性加入劳动力市场等等

and now we’re just in a different world?

现在我们就身处截然不同的世界了吗?

Or could one reasonably do things to get basic economic growth higher?

还是说我们可以采用合理的手段提高基本经济增长?

That’s the million dollar question.

这可是个价值连城的问题

I don’t think we really know the answer to that.

我想我们并不知道问题的答案

I think there is a view out there in the economics literature that what’s going on really is a depletion of ideas.

经济学文献中有一种观点,认为我们正在经历的是“思想的枯竭”

You see this in work, a couple different lines of work.

在工作中你能观察到这一现象,在各色工作领域中都能看到

One is a book by Robert Gordon at Northwestern called The Rise and Fall of American Growth.

西北大学的罗伯特·戈登在《美国增长的兴衰》一书中提到了这一观点

You see it in some work, Chad Jones at Stanford.

斯坦福大学德查德·琼斯教授的研究中也涉及这一观点

And the basic thesis is that if you look at the history of economic growth,

基本论点是,在经济增长史中你会发现

it’s mainly driven by technological progress –

经济发展主要由技术进步驱动——

we learn how to do new stuff.

我们学会如何创造新事物

And it’s not like we’re not learning how to do new stuff;

并不是说我们现在不再学习创造新事物了

but maybe the stuff we’re learning is not quite as life-changing as it was in previous generations.

而是说我们现在学习的事物,可能不如前几代人所经历的那般天翻地覆

You know, previous generations saw stuff like electrification, saw indoor plumbing, the internal combustion engine.

前几代人见证了电气化,室内管道的铺设,内燃机的发明

Those are huge life-changing innovations.

这些都是天翻地覆的大创新

and now you get to tweet out 280 characters at a time.

现在你可以一次性在推特上发布280个字符

So perhaps we’re inventing new stuff; it’s just not as profound.

也许我们仍在发明新事物,只是它们的影响不够深远

There’s nothing in economics that says that we can have two percent growth forever.

你翻遍经济学也找不到一句说经济可以永远维持2%的增长率

There’s no economic theory that says that.

没有任何一种经济理论这么说过

And if you think of the path of human history, people lived pretty close to subsistence for thousands of years

回溯人类历史的行程,你会发现人们在温饱线上挣扎了上千年

before the Industrial Revolution and things started taking off.

直至工业革命的到来带动了经济的腾飞

And there’s nothing that said okay, once the Industrial Revolution started, now growth is going to continue forever.

但也没有经济理论说过,一旦工业革命启动,经济就会永续增长

It might plateau at some point rather than continuing up to infinity

比起持续增长直至无限大,经济总量更可能稳定在某一水平上

– it might.

——事实可能就是如此

So there’s nothing that’s going to guarantee that we’re going to continue.

没有任何证据表明经济一定会持续增长

I think there’s things we can do at the margin.

但在边际上我们至少还能做点什么

I think encouraging research and development is important.

我觉得对研发的鼓励至关重要

I think education which also contributes to economic growth.

我觉得教育也能促进经济增长

There’s also externalities associated with education.

当然还有外部性因素与教育息息相关

Encouraging enterprise formation.

比如对企业开办的鼓励

So the United States is a very dynamic economy,

所以美国仍是一个活力四射的经济体

venture capital is easier to get here than in most countries.

与其他国家相比,在这里更易获得风险投资

And that’s a good thing, we don’t want to sort of demonize the financial system, which actually does support new ventures.

这是好事,我们不应当妖魔化大力支持初创企业的金融体系

But I don’t there’s any magic bullet that says if only we do this, we’ll go back to the three percent growth forever that we’ve experienced during some decades.

但我也没有什么锦囊妙计,能让我们重返过去几十年3%持续增长的好时光

 

I do think you mentioned innovation and enterprise.

我想你刚刚提到了创新和创业

I’m very struck talking to people of how they just take that for granted,

让我深有感触的是,在与人交流的过程中,他们常将创新与创业视为天经地义

as if that’s just going to always be a feature of our society and our culture and our economic system.

仿佛创新和创业是美国社会、文化和经济体系中的固有特征

And I think that’s a – I don’t know, my view is that that’s a huge –

我想这是——我不确定,在我看来这是个——

people underestimate how important that is.

人们低估了创新和创业的重要性

Yes, absolutely.

对,毫无疑问

You know, you can tweak this tax and tweak that, even education system,

你可以尝试调整这个或那个税种,甚至教育体系

but at the end of the day, you really need that spirit of enterprise

但归根结底,你真正需要的是创业精神

which is a little hard to put your finger on where that comes from,

虽然创业精神从何而来也是众说纷纭

and there are cultural aspects to it and so forth.

涉及文化等诸多层面

But it just seems to make a huge difference, ultimately.

但最后带来大改观的确实是创业精神

There’s a quote from Adam Smith, and I’m not going to get this exactly right.

亚当·斯密有一句名言,我不记得具体是怎么说的了

But he says roughly, “the only thing that’s needed to bring a nation from lowest barbarism to greatest opulence

但大概意思是“和平、轻赋税和宽松的司法行政”

 

is peace, easy taxes and a tolerable administration of justice.”

“就足以让一个野蛮落后的国家发展为一个繁荣昌盛的国家”

And if you think of the dynamism of this economy, it’s because we basically have a system that’s pretty much free from corruption.

美国经济之所以活力四射,那是因为我们的体制几乎没有腐败

The taxes are kind of low by international standards.

与国际标准相比,我们的税负相对较低

We tend not to be really worried about –

我们无需过多担忧——

so we’ve been involved in wars, but not wars that affect the US economy directly.

虽然美国参与了多场战争,但都未对美国经济造成直接影响

Whereas if you look around the world, the countries that aren’t prospering, they’re often suffering from either widespread corruption, civil wars, threats from neighbors.

然而环顾世界,那些欠发达国家常受到广泛腐败、内战以及邻国威胁的困扰

So we really have, in some sense, the foundation that Adam Smith said is needed for populism

在某种意义上,美国确实有着亚当·斯密口中民粹主义所需的稳固根基

and then everything else generates itself.

其余的一切不过是顺理成章

You create an environment where you can trust the rule of law, where you’re not going to get –

美国创造出了这样一种社会环境,在这里你信赖法治

you don’t have to bribe government officials to start a business.

你无需贿赂政府官员就能顺利营商

And then the private enterprise system is going to generate the dynamism.

而私人企业体系又会激发出无限活力

And that’s why the United States is one of the most prosperous countries in the world today.

这也是为什么美国是当今世界上最繁荣的国家之一

 

I’d say immigration, don’t you think, that that’s really a –

我想移民也是一个重要因素,不是吗?

I just have come more to the view of, over the last few years, based on no empirical data –

过去几年来我越来越认同一种基于实证数据的观点——

I haven’t looked at the empirical data one way or the other, it’s pretty hard to prove –

当然我没有去查过这些数据,而且本就难以证明——

that immigration is just such a huge plus in terms of –

这种观点认为,在某些方面,移民确实是一件大好事——

leaving aside the details, which are important of whether it puts downward pressure on some wages.

我们暂且不谈有助于判断移民是否打压了某些岗位薪资水平的细节

Yes.

是的

And other groups do better, and other groups do worse and all of that.

某些岗位的薪资提高了,其他岗位的薪资降低了,诸如此类的事

But that the degree which it does create a sense of ambition and enterprise and upward striving is really hard to replicate.

但移民为美国带来的这种雄心壮志、创业精神与拼搏情怀,确实是难以复制

I mean, it’s almost unique, I would say.

甚至可以说是独一无二

 

I agree.

我同意你的说法

I think immigration is basically a plus.

总体而言,移民大有裨益

But I do think the thing about immigration, you have to kind of distinguish between two different kinds –

但是我认为在讨论移民问题前,首先应将其区分为两类——

the skilled immigration and unskilled immigration.

技术移民和非技术移民

I think skilled immigration is an unambiguous plus, along every dimension.

我认为,不论从哪个方面来看,技术移民都是毋庸置疑的好事

These people – if an engineer comes in from another country or a physician comes in from another country,

这些人——不论从他国来的是工程师还是物理学家

they’re going to contribute to the US economy.

都能为美国经济做出贡献

They’re going to surely pay more in taxes than they’re getting in benefits.

毫无疑问,他们缴纳的税款比领取的福利多得多

By increasing the supply of skilled labor, they’re going to tend to reduce income inequality.

通过技术劳工供应的增长,他们能够逐渐缩小收入差距

So that’s a good thing from an equality standpoint.

因此从平等角度而言,这是一件好事

So that’s both pro-growth and pro-equality.

因此这兼顾了促增长和促平等两件事

We talked earlier about the value of education.

前面我们聊到了教育的价值

The simplest way to increase education is to import it.

提升教育水平最直截了当的办法,就是进口教育

Get an educated worker from abroad and let them come in here.

让受过教育的海外劳动者进入美国

So that automatically increases the education of our workforce.

美国劳动力的受教育水平自然而然就提高了

So any foreign student that gets a degree from an American university,

因此对那些在美国大学获得学位的海外学生

they should have the green card sort of stapled onto their diploma.

我们应该在他们的毕业证上钉上绿卡

Encourage them to stay, if they can.

只要他们能留下来,就鼓励他们留下来

Unskilled immigration, I think, requires a more difficult set of tradeoffs.

而对非技术移民,我认为需要设置更为严格的权衡条件

Because I think by and large we do benefit in the same way that we benefit from all free exchange.

因为大体而言,我们会得到与自由汇兑一样的好处

But it probably does put somewhat downward pressure on the wages of unskilled Americans.

但是这的确可能导致美国的非技术工人承受薪资下行的压力

Not huge, because as I said earlier, I think technology is probably a bigger force.

这种压力不会太大,正如我先前所言,技术可能才是更大的推手

But I think it is one of the forces.

不过我认为移民同样难辞其咎

My colleague George Borjas has done a lot of work on this

我的同事乔治·博尔哈斯教授对此开展了相当多的研究

and he estimates there are significant, not huge, but significant downward pressure

据他估计,非技术移民会对美国非技术工人

on unskilled American wages because of unskilled immigration from abroad.

施加显著(但不算太大)的薪资下行压力

 

And we now have the highest percentage, I think, of people born abroad in a century or something here.

我没记错的话,当前美国的非本国出生人口比例,已达近一个世纪以来的新高

Yes.

And we have pretty good wage growth.

而薪资增速仍非常可观

It turns out that if you have –

这表明有更多的移民反而——

Oh yeah.

没错

If the economy is strong, that’s right, it pulls all wages up.

如果经济强劲,薪资水平自然水涨船高

And I think –

我认为——

Which makes me a little dubious about how much alleged damage it’s doing.

这让我对所谓“移民对经济造成的损失”不由得产生怀疑

Maybe it did in a period of slower growth, I suppose.

也许在低增长时期,移民流入确实对美国经济造成了损失

Obviously by definition at some point if you have more unskilled labor, it’s going to put some downward pressure on wages just because of supply and demand.

显然,如果过多的非技术劳工涌入,失衡的供需关系本就会让薪资承受下行压力

 

I think the harder question to ask, which is not really an economic question, is

我认为更难问出口的问题是,其实这已非经济问题

what obligation, moral obligation do we have to people in other countries?

“我们对他国人民究竟有什么样的道德责任?”

When an unskilled worker comes from another country, comes to the United States, by far the person affected the most is that worker.

当一个从他国来的非技术工人进入美国,最受影响的其实是这位工人自己

And most of us have ancestors who came over as unskilled immigrants.

大多数美国人的祖先都是非技术移民

My four grandparents all came from Ukraine just before World War I.

我的四位祖辈都是一战前逃亡美国的乌克兰人

None of them had more than a fourth grade education.

他们当中没有一个人受过四年级以上的教育

And maybe they did a put a little downward pressure on US unskilled wages when they came here,

他们初来美国时可能对美国非技术工人的薪资造成了点下行压力

but boy, the impact on their lives was huge.

但是与之相比,他们的生活才真得是发生了巨大变化

And then their children became more educated and their grandchildren are becoming even more educated yet.

后来,他们的子嗣所受的教育一代比一代多

So I actually have a lot of empathy for the unskilled immigrants abroad as they try to come to the United States

所以我对努力来到美国的非技术移民有着很强的共情

because they’re really not any different than what my grandparents faced a century ago.

因为他们所面临的窘境,与我祖父母在一个世纪前所面对的相差无几

Yeah.

的确如此

 

And a lot of skilled people who are contributing a lot to the economy are the children of unskilled people.

现在诸多为经济发展贡献良多的技术人才,其实是非技术工人的子嗣

So that’s why I’m very –

这也是为什么我非常——

Absolutely – I feel that’s absolutely right.

当然,这一点完全正确

That’s why I’m slightly hostile or skeptical of the excessive distinction between skilled and unskilled.

这也是为什么我对于过分区分技术工人和非技术工人持略微反对和怀疑的态度

That’s a static view of human capital if I can put it that way.

如果要我说的话,这只是一种看待人力资本的静态视角

 

You’re right.

说得没错

That’s right.

就是这样

No, I agree with that.

我赞同你的看法

But the question is not – yes, I mean, but to be –

但是问题不在于——我是说——

between my grandparents came here, and I became a Harvard professor, that there’s a century lag.

从我的祖辈来到美国,到我成为哈佛教授,中间有长达一个世纪的时滞

But if you take a long view, absolutely for sure.

如果你从长远角度去看,这绝对是可行的

Yeah.

是的

And I do tend to take a longer view and that’s why I tend to be more sympathetic to immigration of all kinds.

我的确会将视角放得更为长远,这也是为什么我对所有移民都抱有更多同情

But you have to sort of acknowledge there is some evidence that

但是不得不承认,有证据表明

at least recently over the horizon, over the ten, twenty year horizon, that unskilled workers are affected.

至少在未来十年、二十年的时际上,非技术工人会受到移民的影响

 

Right.

是的

Though there’s a recent study I should – I saw it, I don’t know how definitive it was.

不过我觉得应该提及一项最新研究——我也是刚读到,不知道结论的权威性如何

But I think it was from NBER, so a respectable study, presumably.

不过这篇论文来自全国经济研究所 (NBER),应该具有可信度

That contrary to some fears, social mobility of what would be first generation, second generation,

论文指出,与一些担忧相反,研究表明移民的子嗣

the children of immigrants – is as good as everyone else’s.

也就是第一代移民、第二代移民的社会流动性与其他人几乎没有区别

It’s not the case that –

事实不是我们猜想的那样——

Oh, yeah, and I can believe that.

噢,我相信这个结论

I haven’t seen the study, but that doesn’t surprise me.

我还没读过这篇论文,不过结论并不令我惊讶

Yeah. But there was a sort of a notion that some of the more recent immigrant groups were more static,

是的。有这样的观点认为,最近部分移民群体的社会流动性趋向静止

their kids were doing less well, they were assimilating less well, their educational improvements were less dramatic

他们的孩子表现逊色,难以融入美国社会,受教育水平的改善

than maybe your parents compared to your grandparents, or you compared to your parents.

也不再像你的父辈相比于祖辈,或者你相比于你的父辈的进步那般显著

But that doesn’t seem to be the case, actually.

可这篇论文表明,事实并非如此

Yeah, it’s been –

对,一直以来——

And some of the wealthiest groups in America are pretty recent immigrant groups.

而且在美国最富有人群中,有的成员正是新晋移民

You know, some of them are kind of small, but pick an African nation and so forth.

他们或许人数不多,但非洲国家来的新晋移民往往就是这种情况

 

Well I think in every generation there’s the sense that, oh, the new immigrants are different from the old immigrants, you know?

我想每一代人都有这种想法,“新移民是不是不同于旧移民?”

Yeah.

People used to look at, oh, the Italians aren’t like the Germans; or, the Ukrainians aren’t like the Italians.

人们以前常常认为意大利移民比不上德国移民,乌克兰移民比不上意大利移民

But we come here and then we assimilate.

但是我们来到美国,我们为美国社会所同化

So I’m not worried about the long-term assimilation; I think it does make the U.S. economy stronger.

所以我并不担心长期性的同化,我深信美国经济会因此变得更为强劲

 

 

 

Chapter 2 (31:33 - 1:09:19): The Economy, The Left, and The Right

第二章:经济、左派与右派

But, on the Right especially – Let’s turn to the Right here.

不过,尤其是在右派当中——我们来谈谈右派吧

Well, let me ask one more question about the Left which is,

在那之前我还想问一个关于左派的问题

the Left also does seem to have decided that money grows on trees,

那就是左派似乎以为钱是从天上掉下来的

and we can have a Green New Deal, and we can have Medicare for All,

“绿色新政”也好“全民医保”也好,要花多少钱都不在话下

(屏幕上方注:“绿色新政”是美国左派激进分子主推的立法倡议,诸如取缔化石能源、废弃核能、尽最大可能消灭污染与温室气体排放,旨在解决气候变化和经济不平等问题)

I’m exaggerating a little bit.

我可能有点夸大其词

I don’t think you’re exaggerating at all.

我一点都不觉得你在夸大

But it is a little striking how much -

但这是有点异乎寻常

I mean, some people demur

我知道左派当中也有反对声音

or some of the Democratic Presidential candidates were like

个别民主党总统候选人也表示

“probably shouldn’t do it all at once.”

“这些项目可能不应该一口气全部上马”

“that’s a little – goes a little too far.”

“否则就有点过火了”

But it’s surprising how little pushback there’s been, I would say,

不过我得说,反对声浪比预期的要小得多,颇令人惊讶

to what once would have been thought to, “gee, we have a trillion dollar deficit,”

毕竟以前我们会想“天啊,赤字已经高达一万亿美元了”

“can we really just afford that?”

“我们真的能负担得起这些项目吗?”

I mean, so what about that kind of argument

我想知道你是怎么看这件事的?

and how worried, what should one be about just – you know?

人们应该对财政状况特别是赤字规模感到担忧吗?

I’m very worried about the long-term fiscal sustainability.

我对长期的财政可持续性深感忧虑

I mean if you look at the CBO’s long term fiscal projections,

在国会预算办公室的长期财政预测中

at the debt to GDP ratio, it’s basically rising without bound.

债务GDP占比如脱缰野马,一路上升

They say it’s hanging off towards infinity.

照这趋势下去,债务规模将是无限大

Now, currently it’s not that bad, right? It’s 65 percent of –

但当下情况还没那么糟,对吧?占比现在还是65%

Well, it’s – yeah, that’s right.

是,是这样

But it’s really the trajectory.

但令人担忧的是趋势轨迹

Right.

的确如此

I mean if we were – if it weren’t – if we were going to stabilize where we are now, then I’d say there’s no problem.

如果债务GDP占比能够稳定在目前的水平,那我觉得也没什么大不了

But the problem is, as my generation – I’m a Baby Boomer, so as my generation goes into retirement years

但问题在于,随着像我这样的婴儿潮世代步入退休年龄

and starts collecting what we’re due under Social Security and Medicare, government spending is going to automatically go up

开始领取应得的社保和医保福利,政府开支自然而然会上涨

and tax revenue is not there under current law to pay for it.

而根据现行法律,税收收入并不足以覆盖这些开支

And so either we’re going to have to sort of raise the revenue in some way to cover those commitments, or scale back those commitments.

所以政府要么以某种方式收缴税款以覆盖这些福利,要么削减福利发放的规模

And my guess is, as my generation gets closer and closer to getting what we’re due,

但我的猜测是,随着我这一代人开始领取养老金的时间临近

scaling back things for the elderly is going to go harder and harder.

政府将越来越难以削减养老金

It’s one thing to scale back for the elderly when you do it with a 30 year lead.

提前30年削减养老金规模是一回事

Right.

是的

You say you expect less in 30 years, so you should save more privately.

人们对30年后的养老金就不会有太高预期,也就会私下里存钱防老

But once people are on the verge of retirement it’s very hard to cut back on those benefits for the elderly.

但在人们即将退休的节骨眼上,削减养老福利会非常困难

So, my guess is we’re going to have to have high revenues at some point.

因此,我觉得政府总有一天要想办法获取高额财政收入

 

 

 

And so, the conservative party, the Republican Party in this case,

话又说回保守党派,也就是共和党

which traditionally has at least talked about debt and deficit,

传统上讲,他们无论如何也不会放过拿负债和赤字做文章的机会

even if it wasn’t always super responsible in dealing with it perhaps, or super energetic and –

尽管在解决这一问题上他们也并不是很负责任,或者很有动力——

though it’s in Paul Ryan’s credit they tried for a while there to get serious about entitlement reform

不过在保罗·瑞安的领导下,起码有一阵子共和党人认真考虑过福利改革

(屏幕上方注:保罗·瑞安是共和党前众议员,曾任美国众议院议长,2012年总统大选期间曾作为共和党副总统候选人参选,2018年中期选举期间退出政坛)

and he got the entire House Republican Conference to be for it and so forth.

他曾团结整个众议院共和党人支持福利改革,如此种种

And Romney and he ran on it in 2012,

2012年罗姆尼和他一道竞选美国总统时的政纲中就包括福利改革

and it didn’t obviously hurt them particularly, I wouldn’t say – but anyway, but that’s all –

我不好说这是不是导致他们最终落败的因素之一——

Well there were these ads about pushing grandma off the cliff.

当时铺天盖地都是把老奶奶推下悬崖的政治广告

Right. But it’s not clear that that really was the –

是的,但我们并不清楚这是否就是——

you know, Obama did end up getting reelected by a sort of conventional vote.

毕竟奥巴马成功连任靠的还是民主党的传统票仓

Yeah.

是的

And the Republicans held the House and so forth.

而共和党人则保住了众议院的多数党地位

But boy that’s gone away.

再看看今天的政坛,真是时过境迁

And how worried are you about that?

你对此感到担忧吗?

I mean if neither party cares about debt and deficit, isn’t that kind of a worrisome sign about the – ?

如果两党都不在意负债和赤字,那岂不是一种令人担忧的征兆——?

Yeah.

是的

And we’re in a time now, that there’s nothing pressing because interest rates are low.

当下利率的低迷,让两党感受不到什么压力

And so as a result the cost of, to the budget, of paying for the debt is not – isn’t impressing on them.

因此在财政预算面前,偿付债务的成本压力不足挂齿

But at some point interest rates will rise.

但是利率总有一天会上升

And even if interest rates don’t rise, at some point the debt is going to keep rising, and so the interest costs are going to keep rising.

即使利率不上升,债务规模也会持续扩大,利息成本也会水涨船高

So at some point there’ll be pressure on it.

因此压力终归会到来

It doesn’t have to be in the next two years or four years, but in our lifetimes it will –

也许未来两年四年都能相安无事,但在我们的有生之年它会——

I think it’ll become a big issue again.

我认为届时它会再次成为一个大问题

And what about interest rates incidentally?

如何看待目前的利率水平呢?

Isn’t that like a little mysterious how they can be so low? Isn’t normal –

超低利率是不是略带神秘色彩?这种情况正常吗?

It is.

确实不同寻常

I think it has something to do with what we talked about earlier, which is the slow growth.

我想低利率与我们先前提及的低增长相关联

You know, if technological progress slows down, it’s going to tend to push down interest rates

技术进步放缓会打压利率水平

because there won’t be as much demand for funds to finance investment projects.

因为不再会有那么多为投资项目融资的资金需求

But it’s puzzled a lot of economists and economists are trying to figure out what it means for long economic growth, what it means for monetary policy.

但是这困扰着诸多经济学家,试着弄清低利率对长期经济增长和货币政策的意义

And we haven’t figured out all the answers yet.

我们尚未弄清所有问题的答案

I think there’s a lot of internal debate.

我想学界内部对此也是众说纷纭

 

 

 

I mean, one of the weird things for me is that on the one hand everyone is sort of discontented.

有一点在我看来很不可思议,一方面每个人都心存不满

Some people on the Left are unhappy with mainstream economics, and certainly what free markets produced,

一些左派人士对主流经济学感到不满,就更别提自由市场的产物了

or more or less free markets.

多多少少算是自由市场吧

People on the Right are now very unhappy.

右派人士同样非常不满

It’s sort of found fashionable to decry simple minded belief in markets and so forth.

对盲目信奉市场的抨击已经渐成潮流

And you sort of think to yourself, well, if things really –

你会不由得去想,如果经济形势真的如此糟糕——

are people unhappy because things are bad,

人们真的是因为经济不好而感到不满吗?

or are people unhappy because things are actually or were pretty good for a long time?

还是因为经济太好好得太久,让人们吃太饱了?

With a big hiccup in ’08, but it pretty quickly recovered from hiccups, to be fair.

2008年美国经济摔得是很惨,但是公平地讲,它很快就恢复了过来

And the people are so complacent now, they can sort of indulge –

现在人们是如此得自鸣得意,甚至开始沉溺于——

I don’t know, fantasies is too strong.

我也不知道该怎么说,用“妄想”可能有点过了

But, you know, pipe dreams, on the Left and the Right, in a way that, I don’t know,

但在某种意义上,这就是左派与右派在做白日梦

in the old days it seems like maybe you just couldn’t get away with that.

放在以前,这些讨论压根就摆不上台面

I mean it does feel like a little bit –

我是说,这的确有点——

there’s a little unreality to our whole economic situation now.

在对美国整体经济形势的认识上,似乎存在一种“平行现实”

I think people are judging the economy based on their aspirations of what they’d like it to be.

我想人们总是根据自己的期许去判断经济形势

And I can understand; their aspirations are higher.

我也能理解;他们有着更高的期许

They’d rather have more equality; I would too.

他们想要社会更加平等;我也想

They’d rather have faster growth; I would too.

他们想要经济更快增长;我也想

But it’s not as if things are terrible.

但这不代表经济形势很严峻

I mean if you lift – the median American is better off materially than 99 percent of people that were ever born on this planet.

如果你抬头看看——中位数美国人的物质生活水平比地球上99%的人要优厚

I mean it’s not like economic growth is going into reverse; it’s just slowed down.

我们的经济增长又没有陷入倒退;只是增速放缓而已

Inequality is high, but it’s not like we’ve never been here before.

不平等程度是在加剧,但我们又不是没有经历过这样的阶段

You know, about a hundred years ago inequality was probably about the same as it is today.

100年前的不平等程度恐怕与当下相差无几

So these things are not completely unprecedented.

所以说这一切并非完全没有先例

Would I like things to be better? Sure.

我想让形势变得更好吗?当然

But I don’t think we should lose sight of the good fortune that we really have, in many ways, in light of the challenges we face.

但是面对当下的挑战,无论如何都不应该忽视我们所享有的好运

 

 

 

And where are you, incidentally, I can’t resist asking – on the kind of,

我忍不住要问一句,你怎么看待

well, gee, wages haven’t gone up in 40 years, real wages, real median wages, whatever?

“薪资水平/实际薪资/实际中位数薪资已经40年没涨啦”的观点?

Versus what I take to be the counter-argument which is kind of, yeah, but that’s an inaccurate way of measuring,

我这里还有反方观点,就是“用薪资去衡量的方法并不准确”

and it doesn’t capture all kinds of improvements in standard of living, and stuff?

“它不能充分捕捉到生活水平等方方面面的改善”

Yeah, well, I think that’s right.

是的,我认为后者说的没错

I mean there is – economists have talked for years about how inflation tends to –

经济学家已经就此探讨了很多年

inflation measures tend to overstate inflation

即通胀指标往往会夸大通胀水平

because we don’t take into account the improvements in the quality of products and so on, and new products.

因为我们没有把产品质量的提升及新产品的出现纳入考量

So the flip side of inflation being over-measured, is that real wages are under-estimated

而通胀水平被夸大的另一面,就是实际薪资被低估

because you’re always deflating wages by inflation measures.

因为你总是要用通胀指标去对薪资做平减

So if inflation is a bit too high, then the real wage growth is too low.

故而如果通胀水平过高,得出的实际薪资增长就会过低

So I think we probably are better off than we were a generation ago,

所以我认为当代人的生活确实比上一代更富裕

but there’s no question that inequality has gone up.

不过不平等程度的加剧是毫无疑问的

And so people are comparing themselves not only to what they remember their parents enjoying 30, 40 years ago;

人们不仅是在与记忆中30、40年前父辈享受的生活作比较

they’re comparing themselves to what their neighbor is enjoying and the fact that their neighbor may have the bigger house and so on, I think.

他们还在与他们的邻居的生活作比较,比如邻居住的房子更大等等

So there’s no question that rising inequality is going to lead to a sense of dissatisfaction in some segments.

毋庸置疑,不平等程度的加剧会引起某些细分群体的不满情绪

And you mentioned earlier I think that people’s – that children no longer are as likely to outpace them, as used to be the case?

还有你先前提到,子辈超过父辈实现阶级跨越的概率,也不如以往了

Yes.

是的

The probability that you will – it used to be the probability that you will have a higher standard of living than your parents,

对于那些出生在上世纪40年代、50年代的人而言

for people who were born in like the ’40s and ’50s –

他们超过父母的概率——过上比父母更高水准的生活的概率

the probability that you’d be better off than your parents was like 90 percent.

也是他们比父母更富裕的概率,约为90%

It was almost a certainty that you will have a higher standard of living than your parents.

几乎人人都能过上比父母更高水准的日子

And now it’s much lower than that.

但是现在这一数字大大降低了

And that’s because growth has slowed,

因为经济增长有所滞缓

and because the growth we’ve had has accrued more to the top of the distribution than across the board.

也因为增长带来的财富积累集中在收入分布的顶层,而不是全面提升

 

 

 

And the baseline is higher.

分母也更大了

Yeah.

是的

If more of your parents are already middle class.

如果更多人的父母已经是中产阶级

Yes, yes – for sure, yes.

是的,一点没错

I mean, you know, you could have a normal middle class life, but it’s just not necessarily better than your middle class parents’.

你也能过上普通的中产阶级生活,只是不一定优于你的中产阶级父母的生活

Whereas if your parents were working class immigrants, making it into the middle class was a huge step up.

相比之下如果你的父母是工薪阶级移民,那么跨入中产就是很大的阶级提升

But that is a big, don’t you think, affects attitudes a lot.

这对人们的心态造成了很多影响,不是吗

Because so much of the American creed, the American dream, is

美国信条也好美国梦也好都在宣扬一件事:

you will do better than your parents.

你会过上比你父母更好的生活

There’s so many parents who invest so much

数不胜数的家长付出了那么多

in the assumption that their kids will do yet better than them.

都是基于孩子会过上更好生活的假设

And you could tell them, you know, hey, it’s not going to be so automatic as it used to be.

你是可以直截了当地告诉他们,“这事可不像过去那么水到渠成了”

But I think people – that probably does lead to a certain kind of discontent.

但是我认为人们——那样做可能会引发一些不满情绪

Oh, it does, and I think particularly discontent for relatively unskilled workers.

确实如此,我想非技术工人会尤其不满

And if you look at the voting patterns over time, for most elections,

如果你去观察不同时期的投票规律,你会发现在多数选举中

people with college degrees and without college degrees sort of vote for the same candidate.

大学毕业和非大学毕业的人大致会投给同一位候选人

I saw that Pew has sort of been working on this.

我读过皮尤研究中心的相关研究

And so the skilled and the unskilled tend to vote the same, except in 2016.

技术工人和非技术工人的投票结果也趋同,唯一的例外是2016年

We saw a very big divergence

当年的选票流向呈现出非常大的分歧

where the college-educated tended to vote for Hillary Clinton,

受过大学教育的人倾向于投给希拉里·克林顿

and the non-college educated tended to vote for Donald Trump.

而没有受过大学教育的人倾向于投给唐纳德·特朗普

And that’s perfectly understandable if you think that the economy’s been particularly bad for the unskilled workers.

而考虑到经济形势给非技术工人带来的恶果,这是完全可以理解的

Then they’re the ones who really felt like, oh, the elites in Washington weren’t doing us any favors, we need to shake things up.

他们的切身感受是,“华盛顿的精英们弃我们于不顾,我们得换一拨人上”

And I kind of – so I understand that sentiment.

我有点——所以我理解这种情绪

I don’t think Donald Trump has shaken things up in a useful way,

我并不认为唐纳德·特朗普带来的大变局是朝着好的方向发展

but you sort of understand their motivation of feeling dissatisfied with the economy that they’ve been living through.

但是这些人对自己身处的经济形势感到不满的来由,是可以理解的

 

 

 

Well so let’s talk about some of the Trump-y, or you know the “new Republican” conservative

那我们来聊聊特朗普式的,或者所谓“新共和党”保守派

discontents with sort of traditional markets.

对于传统市场的不满都有哪些吧

So, there’s trade, there’s immigration, they don’t like that.

首先,他们不喜欢贸易,不喜欢移民

There’s the critique of the big companies, the corporate America, big tech.

他们对大型公司、美国企业界和科技巨头大肆批判

I mean it’s striking how much of a nerve some of that nationalist, populist rhetoric has hit, don’t you think?

这样的民族主义、民粹主义话术着实是刺激到了不少神经,不是吗?

It has.

是的

I think – let’s talk about Trump trade policy.

我认为——我们来谈谈特朗普的贸易政策

I think there’s an element of truth to the Trump trade policy that in the end – and then gone haywire.

我觉得在特朗普贸易政策当中是有那么一点道理的——后来局面就完全失控了

So the element of truth is that we do have issues with China

这一点道理在于,我们与中国之间确实存在问题

and China is one of our major trading partners.

而中国是我们的重大贸易伙伴之一

And then one of the big issues which the Trump administration does emphasize is intellectual property.

特朗普政府强调的重大问题之一是知识产权问题

Right.

是的

And the United States tends to be an exporter of intellectual property,

美国往往是知识产权的出口国

whether we’re talking about software, or movies, or even economic textbooks.

无论是软件、电影,甚至是经济学教科书

We export intellectual property.

我们出口知识产权

Which is good in the case of economic textbooks.

出口的经济学教科书质量尤其优秀

Yeah, exactly.

没错(笑)

And China tends not to respect intellectual property and that’s a problem for the US.

而中国往往不尊重知识产权,这对美国而言就成了问题

I mean from my perspective stealing, copying someone’s software, or making illegal copies of somebody’s movie, is basically a form of theft.

在我看来,窃取、拷贝他人的软件或者非法盗版他人的电影,实质上是一种偷窃

It’s really not functionally different from theft.

在行为上与偷窃无异

Right.

没错

And so I think we have a real serious issue.

所以我认为我们面对的是一个真正严重的问题

Now, the question is what –

接下来就该问了,什么——

Did the Chinese pay for their translation of your textbook?

中国人为你的教科书译本支付了版权费吗?

Well, it’s interesting, you know.

这事可有意思了

I’ve had students come back from China saying,

从中国回来的学生告诉我

I’ve been to the bookstores and I’ve seen several different versions of your textbook in stores.

“我去了书店,店里有你教科书的好几种不同译本”

So some of them – there’s an authorized version and there’s unauthorized versions, selling in the same stores.

正版译本与盗版译本摆在同一家店里出售

So the question is what do you do with sort of that failure to protect intellectual property?

该问的问题是,该如何处理这些破坏知识产权的行为?

Well I think we have allies who have similar interests that we have.

我想在这一点上我们有利益一致的盟友

And there are organizations like the WTO that we should be working with.

还有像WTO这样的组织应当与之合作

And so I think we do need to deal with that.

所以我认为我们亟需解决这一问题

Instead, the Trump administration has really lashed out against all our trading partners,

但是,特朗普政府向所有的贸易伙伴发难

including allies like Europe and Canada and Mexico.

连我们的盟友欧洲、加拿大和墨西哥也不放过

I mean these are people we should be working with, not opposed to.

这些本应是我们通力合作的盟友,而不是敌人

And then their complaints aren’t narrowly focused on what is our problem, intellectual property,

特朗普政府的指责也没有聚焦于知识产权问题

they’re like, on all sorts of things.

他们似乎什么事情都要插上一脚

Like “we’re running a trade deficit with China, why is that? That’s terrible.”

比如说“我们对中国存在贸易逆差,为什么会这样?太糟糕了”

There’s lots of economists who’d say a bilateral trade imbalance is basically a meaningless statistic.

有很多经济学家会说双边贸易失衡实质上是一项毫无意义的统计数据

So I think there’s an element of truth to the Trump complaints about trade policy,

总之,我认为特朗普在贸易政策上的指责确有那么一点道理

but then it’s led to a completely, a trade negotiation stance that’s completely lacking in nuance.

但是这最后演变成了一套完全不经思考的贸易谈判立场

And I understand sort of where they’re coming from, but I think they really haven’t handled it very well.

我能理解这么做的动机,但特朗普政府对贸易问题确实处置不力

We’ve talked about immigration that I think is a plus for the economy,

我们刚刚谈到了移民,以及移民给经济带来的诸多好处

not to mention, I think, personally I think what’s going on at the border and the family separations is morally repugnant.

更不用说,我从道义上抵触近期南部边境的拘留和家庭分离做法

So putting aside the economics, I mean, it’s hard not to be horrified by that.

就算撇开经济学逻辑,也很难不为之震惊

And in general, I think, what’s really bothering me a lot about the Trump administration goes beyond economics,

总的来说,真正令我忧心的特朗普政府行径早就超出了经济学范畴

which is basically treatment of our traditional allies terribly really from the beginning,

自上台起他们对待传统盟友的方式就极为粗暴

but recently what’s gone on with Ukraine, what’s gone on with the Kurds in Northern Syria.

最近还爆出了乌克兰丑闻,背弃了叙利亚北部的库尔德武装

I mean, it’s just sort of morally repugnant along so many dimensions.

特朗普政府在太多层面上都为道德所不容

 

 

 

And there is a kind of mercantilism

似乎还存在某种重商主义情结

which spills over from a sort of narrow economic mercantilism to a general attitude.

从狭义的经济重商主义蔓延到了其他政策领域

And you see this very clearly with Trump, that the only way we do well is by other people doing worse.

特朗普将这种“以邻为壑”的思维表现得淋漓尽致

Yes.

没错

And we need to, in fact, make other people do worse because that will even help us do even better.

还要主动破坏别国的经济,好进一步提升本国的经济表现

And the whole point, if I could say from an almost moral philosophy point of view of Adam Smith and free markets,

而撇开狭义的经济学论述不谈

leaving aside the strict economic arguments,

亚当·斯密以及整个自由市场道德思想的本来意义

is to try to cut away from that.

就是为了与这种重商主义划清界限

Oh, absolutely.

完全正确

And it could be overdone, it could be over-simplified, rising tide.

这种思想可以讲得很复杂,也可以很简单,比如“水涨船高”

It doesn’t lift every boat, but there is some truth to that.

虽然做不到雨露均沾,但也有些道理

(屏幕上方注:此处梗为美国前总统约翰·肯尼迪的名言“A rising tide lifts all boats”)

And it’s a healthier society when you have that basic, I think, sense that you can do – in doing well, you can do good, and vice versa.

我觉得,当大家都遵循互利共赢的基本常识

And those are not at total odds with one another.

而不是你死我活的囚徒困境时,社会才能更加健康地发展

Absolutely.

当然

In fact, one of the very first things that I emphasize when I teach introductory economics

事实上,在教授经济学入门课时,我首要强调的一点

is that trade is not zero sum.

就是贸易并非零和博弈

It’s not like oh, there’s a winner and a loser.

贸易领域没有绝对的输赢

It’s that we can both be better off engaging in international trade.

贸易双方都能在国际贸易中变得更加富裕

And helps us understand not just trade among nations, but trade among individuals.

这不仅适用于国与国之间的贸易,也同样适用于个人之间的贸易

That’s true of an internal market, too, right?

国内市场也是如此,对吗?

Exactly, exactly.

一点不错

I mean, why are we inter-dependent?

为什么我们要相互依存?

Why don’t we all live like Robinson Crusoe growing our own food and making our own clothing?

为什么我们没有像鲁滨逊·克鲁索一样过上自给自足的封闭生活?

It’s because we all gain from trade and trade is positive sum.

因为我们都能从贸易中得到好处,贸易是一场正和博弈

And so understanding the basic economics of that is the first part to understanding why it’s not really bad to be inter-dependent.

理解贸易背后的基本经济学原理,是理解相互依存并非坏事的第一步

It’s not bad to rely on other people or other countries.

依赖他人或他国并非坏事

Mercantilism is this old idea that trade is good only when you sell things to other people

陈腐的重商主义思想认为,只有在你卖东西给他人时,贸易才是好事

and the fact that people are selling you stuff is, in some sense, the cost you have to bear to sell them your stuff.

而他人卖东西给你,则被视作是你卖东西给他们的必要代价

Whereas economists, it’s more the opposite.

相比之下,经济学家的认识恰恰相反

It’s like we benefit from being able to buy things from other people

从他人那里买东西令我们获益

and the reason we have to sell things to other people is we have to get some money to buy things from them.

而我们得卖东西给他人的原因是,我们得赚钱从他们那里买东西

And so it really thinks about international and inter-personal trade in a very different way.

所以经济学看待国际和人际贸易的视角截然不同

I mean, in one of my New York Times articles I said

我曾在一篇发表于《纽约时报》的文章中写道

would Donald Trump object

如果美国人去特朗普集团旗下的苏格兰国际高尔夫度假村度假

if Americans went on vacation in Trump International Scotland golf resort?

特朗普会反对吗?

Would he think it’s a bad thing,

说到底美国游客是在买一种称为“苏格兰假期”的进口品啊

because after all, they’re buying an import, a Scottish vacation?

他会觉得这是件坏事吗?

I presume he wouldn’t object.

我相信他不会反对的

He doesn’t think an American flying off to Scotland to play golf there is a bad thing.

他不会觉得美国人飞去苏格兰打高尔夫球是件坏事

Similarly, whenever we sort of buy an import, the person buying the import is going to benefit.

同理,每当我们要购买进口品,买家其实是在从中获益

 

 

 

And you mentioned teaching your students.

你刚刚提到给学生上课

I’m just curious about this.

我只是有点好奇

You hear a lot of conservatives particularly worried about the younger generation.

舆论场上有很多保守派视年轻一代如洪水猛兽

The polls show that they like socialism and they don’t like capitalism at all.

民调显示他们喜欢社会主义,讨厌资本主义

What do you make of that? Is that real, is that just kind of, they say it but they don’t mean it?

你对此作何理解?事实果真如此,还是只是嘴上说说而已?

I think there’s some element of truth to it

我想这反映了一定的真实状况

because I don’t, I mean for me, the Soviet Union loomed large as a tale of what could go wrong.

对我而言,苏联的教训时刻警示着走弯路的后果

And I grew up going to a Ukrainian church with my parents

我从小随父母在一间乌克兰教堂礼拜

and every week they would pray for the independence of Ukraine.

每周他们都会为乌克兰独立而祈祷

And I remember thinking as a snarky teenager

我记得当时自己还是个自作聪明的青少年

thinking “well, that will never happen.”

心想“这怎么可能呢”

Yeah, totally.

完全能理解

Right? But it did, right?

但乌克兰的确独立了,不是吗?

And so I think we’ve really learned a lot from comparing North and South Korea or East and West Germany,

所以我觉得在比较朝鲜和韩国或者东德和西德时,我们学到了宝贵的教训

that essentially planned economies don’t work.

那就是计划经济行不通

You see it now in Venezuela.

计划经济的恶果至今仍能在委内瑞拉看到

That lesson, I think, doesn’t loom as large to today’s students.

我觉得,现在的学生对于这个教训没有深切的印象

So when they think of socialism, they think of oh, Scandinavia, the Scandinavians seem fine.

因此每当谈到社会主义,他们联想到的是发展不错的斯堪的纳维亚国家

And the truth is, that’s not really essentially a planned economy;

但事实是,这些国家拥有的并不是计划经济

they just have a more robust social safety net than we have,

他们只是有比美国更加稳固的社会安全网

but they’re basically market economies with a lot of economic freedoms.

但本质上仍然是享有诸多经济自由的市场经济

And in some respects, I believe,

我没记错的话,在诸如反对福利扩张和财政政策审慎方面

tougher anti-entitlement growth and more fiscally responsible policies than we’ve had, right?

与美国相比,这些国家反倒更加严苛

And they’ve cut back on stuff that we’ve never been able to cut back on in terms of some of the benefits.

他们还成功削减了一些福利项目,这在美国根本无从谈起

The thing to know about a lot of these European countries is the reason they have a more general social safety net

我们得明白,这些欧洲国家之所以能有覆盖范围更广的社会安全网

is they tax the middle class higher than we do.

是因为他们对中产阶级的征税力度比美国要大得多

It’s often said that in our country the Left and the Right agree on 99 percent of tax policy.

老话常说,美国的左右派在税收政策上能达成99%的共识

That is, the Republicans don’t want to raise taxes on anybody;

意思是说,共和党不想对任何人加税

the Democrats only want to raise taxes on the top 1 percent.

而民主党只想对收入分布中的前1%群体加税

So there’s 99 percent agreement.

这就达成了99%的共识

But if you look at Europe, they actually have a robust social safety net

但是你再看欧洲,他们享有的稳固社会安全网

by taxing everybody with things like the Value Added Tax.

建立在对每一位公民征收的增值税等等之上

It’s a very broad-based tax.

这是一种税基广泛的税种

So if we want to be more like Scandinavia, which we can decide to do or not do,

因此如果我们想向斯堪的纳维亚国家看齐,我们有选择这么做的权利

you have to acknowledge that to do that, we’d have to basically tax everybody more,

但同时得承认,要做到这一点,人人都得缴纳更高的税款

not just the 1 percent or the 0.1 percent.

而不仅仅是前1%或者0.1%群体

We’d have to have broad-based taxes

如果我们有这样的意愿,就必须实行税基广泛的税收政策,

and then we could use it to provide more benefits, if we wanted to.

然后用征收的税款为人民提供福利

And do you think they do pay a price in terms of both general economic growth and innovation and enterprise

那你认为这些国家在对中产阶级加税的同时

with the higher taxes on the middle class?

会在国民经济增长、创新与创业上付出代价吗?

I think they do.

我觉得他们是付出了代价

I think there’s evidence that when taxes are higher, people work less.

有证据表明,税负加重会导致人们减少工作

Ed Prescott, the Nobel Prize winner from the University of Minnesota,

诺贝尔奖获得者,明尼苏达大学的爱德华·普雷史考特

has a paper on that and I basically find that credible,

针对上述情况撰写过一篇有权威性的论文

It’s not a terrible – I mean, it’s not like people there are miserable.

形势并不会变得多糟——并不是说当地人们生活在水生火热之中

But I think there’s a trade-off.

但是我觉得这当中是存在一种权衡

We could have more equality.

美国社会也可以更加公平

We could do the Yang plan with a Value Added Tax together with Universal Basic Income.

我们可以推行杨安泽的方案,全民基本收入与增值税一并落实

That creates more equality, but we’ll probably be less,

那会让社会更加公平,但是相对应的

have lower average income and be less prosperous by that metric.

平均收入水平会更低,经济的繁荣程度也会更有限

 

 

 

And do you agree with the argument that I think Ed Conard and some others make that

你怎么看爱德华·康纳德等人提出的观点

it’s more businessmen maybe than economists, it’s a little unquantifiable,

这种观点更多是从商人而非经济学家的角度出发,有点难以量化

that you need the outsized returns, which seem to some people a little bit crazy and horrifying

即让一些人感到不适与震惊的(企业家获得的)巨额回报是必要的

and do to me, too, some kid gets lucky with one invention and suddenly he’s worth $800 million dollars or something like that.

一个毛头小子能撞大运靠一项发明一夜暴富8亿美元,就连我也难以相信

But you do need that to have Silicon Valley, to have the kind of almost insane churning

但要想有硅谷那种一门心思创新的环境,这种回报是必要的

and people taking risks and giving up jobs at reasonable salaries

这样才能让人们敢于冒险,放弃薪资丰厚的工作

to put everything into some start-up.

倾尽所有投身初创事业

How strong is that, do you think?

你认为这种观点能站得住脚吗?

That could be right.

这可能是对的

I think it’s very hard to know.

我觉得这事很难说

But you know the argument.

但是你知道争论点为何

I know the argument, which is would Bill Gates have created Microsoft if there had been a billionaire tax?

我明白,比方说如果征收亿万富翁税,那么比尔·盖茨还会创立微软吗?

I’d say it’s less Gates, because he would have,

要我说的话,这里讨论的并非盖茨,因为他还是会创立微软

because he would still become hugely rich.

因为他还是会赚得盆满钵满

It’s less even the number two and three people at Microsoft;

讨论的甚至都不是微软的二号、三号员工

it’s the number 30 person who joined.

而是加入微软的第30号员工

I’m making this up, but it’s in general, who left a good job –

我只是假设,但是通常而言这个人要放弃一份好工作

Maybe a safer, more secure job.

或许是一份更为安定、享有更多保障的工作

– yeah, at IBM where he was getting very well paid for being a senior blah, bah, blah, vice president of marketing,

对,比方说他本可以在IBM当高级主管、营销副总裁之类,薪资丰厚

and went to some pretty obscure start-up with the offer of equity thinking

现在却跑去某个名不见经传的初创公司拿股权形式的录用激励,心想

you know what? It’s nice to make – I’m making this up, but – $400,000 dollars a year at IBM

“在IBM能拿40万美元年年薪是不错”——这数字我现编的——

and it’s very, it’s pleasant, it’s not even that hard work.

“工作节奏也很舒服,没必要累死累活”

But I’m going to give that up for a much, somewhat lower salary to start with and anyway,

“但我要放弃这一切,去一家薪资低得多的初创公司”

this place could go bankrupt in two years.

“两年后会不会破产都说不好”

But, I’m going to have a chance to really hit it rich.

“但我在这里有机会一炮打响成为巨富”

And I think his argument, at least Ed’s version of it, is more –

所以我想他的论点,至少是爱德华提出的版本,要更加——

it’s less Gates and Steve Jobs, they will do what they do probably anyway.

他不是在说盖茨和史蒂夫·乔布斯,他们无论如何都会创造历史

But it’s more the kind of, the amazing willingness of American upper middle management talent,

讨论更多的是美国中上层管理人才的这种惊人意愿

including not necessarily the tech people themselves,

而且不仅仅是技术人员自己

but the people who make these companies succeed once the tech gets invented,

还包括那些在技术发明成功之后,帮助公司走向成功的那些人

the marketers, the lawyers – everyone.

市场营销人员也好,律师也好——包括这当中的每一个人

And it’s an interesting argument.

是个着实有趣的论点

There could be evidence.

这论点可能是有据可循

You sort of need that kind of –

他们得有那种精神——

There’s certainly different career path.

理所当然存在不同的职业路径

You’re leaving, you’re deciding you want a relatively secure job,

从原公司跳槽想要一份相对稳定的工作

a physician where I know for sure I’m going to make my $300,000 a year,

做一名年薪30万美元保底的外科医生之类

but I’m unlikely to become a billionaire,

但不太可能藉此成为亿万富翁

or do I go to Silicon Valley and roll the dice and maybe I’ll become a billionaire, maybe

或者可以去硅谷碰碰运气,也许能成为亿万富翁,但愿如此

In Europe, one has the sense, it has a lot of well-paid good jobs,

在欧洲情况有所不同,当地也有诸多高薪工作

really intelligent, well-educated people and they stay in those jobs.

但很多接受过高等教育的聪明人会终其一身守在这些岗位上

Yes.

是的

Not only in government, but also outside of government.

不仅仅是体制内,体制外的人也是如此

So you’re at some big fancy French company and you move up in the French company, that’s very nice.

因此如果你供职于一家大型法国公司,你能在公司内部晋升,那非常棒

It doesn’t even occur to them the way every American –

他们压根不会有美国人的那种想法——

you get the impression every American businessman even at the biggest companies in the back of his mind is thinking

美国商人的那种即便在行业巨头供职,暗地里也仍在盘算

well, maybe I will jump to this – my cousin seems to think he has some clever start-up

“也许我该跳槽去我侄子开的那家点子不错的初创企业了”

and maybe it’s worth taking a gamble on that.

“也许它值得我赌一把”

Yes.

是的

And that is something healthy, I think healthy about that.

我觉得这是一种非常健康的想法

It is, I agree.

我也这么觉得

And I don’t know of any evidence that would absolutely conclusively prove that to a skeptic,

我不知道是否有充分的证据向怀疑者证明这一点

but it strikes me as a plausible hypothesis.

但在我眼中这是个合理的假设

 

 

 

So what worries you the most?

有什么事最令你感到担忧?

I mean, each party’s economic – leaving aside President Trump’s personal character as president,

两党的经济政策——撇开特朗普总统的个人性格不谈

which you and I are not crazy about, to say the least.

说得好听点,对于他的性格我们俩都不太感冒

But in terms of polices, where would you see things really going off the rails as opposed to just kind of a little bit of silliness?

但在政策方面,有哪些变化会让你觉得不只是有点傻,而是真的覆水难收?

Well, I mean the trade war could get worse. I mean, it could really escalate.

要我说,贸易战还可能进一步恶化,是真的可能再度升级

And it’s not that the Democrats are great free traders either.

民主党也不是什么伟大的自由贸易倡导者

No, I think generally the Republicans have been the better party for trade.

是的,我觉得大体上还是共和党人对贸易更加友好

Interestingly, Democratic presidents are often better than Democrats in Congress.

有趣的是,民主党总统的表现常常比国会民主党人更友好

Yes.

是的

Like I was skeptical about Barack Obama because his record as a senator

比如我曾对奥巴马持怀疑态度,因为当他还是参议员时

was not great in terms of voting on trade things.

投票记录显示他在贸易上的立场不是很友好

But when he became president, he became much better.

但是他当了总统后,立场大为缓和

But you’re right.

然而你说得对

In Congress, the Democrats are not great free traders

在国会,民主党人并非什么伟大的自由贸易倡导者

and the Republican constituency seems to have disappeared on this because they’re following Trump on this issue,

而在贸易上共和党选民的声音似乎也消失了,因为他们在该议题上紧跟特朗普

even though I’m guessing in the back of their minds, they’re thinking that’s the wrong direction to head.

尽管我猜他们暗地里也觉得自己正朝错误的方向迈进

So I’m worried about that.

所以这令我感到担忧

I’m also worried about climate change, by the way.

顺便提一句,我还担心气候变化

I mean, I actually do take the scientists seriously.

我认为应该严肃对待科学家的警告

I’m not a scientist, so I can’t really evaluate the science behind climate change.

我不是科学家,所以我无法评价气候变化背后的科学依据

But when the majority of scientist tell me it’s a real thing, then I’m inclined to believe them.

但是当大批科学家告诉我这是事实,我还是倾向于相信他们

And I think the fact that President Trump, apparently legitimately thinks it’s a hoax, is a bad sign.

显然特朗普总统认为这是场骗局,这可是个糟糕的信号

And then I think the longer we wait, the harder it’s going to be, so I worry about that.

我们袖手旁观的时间越久,日后的处境就越艰难,所以我深感担忧

It seems like a manageable thing if you had sensible market, friendly policies, right?

如果市场理性、政策友好,这似乎仍是一件可控之事,对吗?

It does.

是的

I’ve been part of this group, something that is called the Baker-Shultz plan of putting a carbon tax,

我一直是贝克尔-舒尔茨计划的成员,该计划要推出碳税

(屏幕上方注:该计划旨在限制二氧化碳排放,以前财长吉姆·贝克尔和乔治·舒尔茨命名)

along with deregulation and using all the tax revenue to rebate in terms of what they call carbon dividends.

加上去监管措施,并将所有碳税收入退还给消费者,称之为碳分红

The Climate Leadership Council is the group that’s been pushing this and I’ve signed on to that.

气候领导委员会正在推进此事,我也是其中的一分子

I think among our economists, that’s got a large consensus of economists on both the Right and the Left.

我认为多数左派与右派经济学家对此达成了共识

Because it’s a market friendly, it takes climate change seriously, it wants to do something about it.

因为该计划对市场友好,严肃对待气候变化,致力于做实事

Wants to incentivize people to reduce their carbon footprint, but does so in a way that’s going to let market forces work.

希望激励人们减少碳足迹,但同时不妨碍市场的正常运作

It’s not going to micro-manage business decisions, which is what I’m afraid of.

它不会微观干预企业的商业决策,我本来比较担心这一点

If you want to sort of do this via central planning, it’s not going to be as effective

如果要通过中央计划解决问题,效果就会大打折扣

and it’s just going to be very interventionist and very inefficient.

事情只会变得极具干预主义色彩,事倍功半

I mean, the Green New Deal I think shows a way in which the climate issue can be used to justify an awful lot of government planning,

我认为,“绿色新政”就是利用了气候议题,为其扩大政府计划干预背书

some of which honestly has very little to do with climate, but it’s just they want to do a lot more planning, I suppose.

坦白来讲,其中有些倡议与气候毫无关系,不过是想借此扩大计划干预的权力

Yeah, that’s right.

没错

So right now there doesn’t seem to be the constituency for this carbon taxing dividend plan.

虽然碳税分红计划暂时还未得到选民的支持

But I think there’s some people in Congress that kind of know it’s the right thing to do.

但是我想一些国会议员明白这样做是正确的

I think they know it’s politically dangerous for them,

他们知道这会给他们的政治前途带来风险

but I think they know.

但是我想他们很清楚其中的利害关系

It’s not a complicated idea and the idea has been floating around long enough.

碳税分红的想法并不复杂,提出至今也有些时日了

I think Congress will be ready to do it if the American people were behind it.

一旦得到了美国人民的支持,我想国会随时可以付诸实施

 

 

 

And on the left, if Elizabeth Warren becomes the nominee and president

把讨论转向左派,假设伊丽莎白·沃伦成为候选人、当选总统

and even has a fairly supportive Congress,

甚至获得民主党把守多数的国会支持

which of the things that she would do would you think – ah –

她倡导的政策中又有哪些令你感到担忧?

Well, it’s interesting what they – it’s a – which I’m deeply skeptical of,

沃伦有关改革企业治理的倡议很有意思

is the whole change of corporate governance.

但我对之深表怀疑

I mean, she wants to take all big companies and say

她想对所有的大型企业下达最后通牒

“look, your job is no longer to maximize profit for shareholders;

 “你们今后的职责将不再是最大化股东利益”

you now have to take into account all your stakeholders.

“从现在起你们得将所有利益攸关方纳入考量”

And we’re going to put more labor representatives on your board.

“政府将在你们的董事会中安插更多劳方代表”

And so when you’re deciding whether to close a factory,

“所以你在决定是否关停一座工厂的时候”

you shouldn’t think of whether it’s profitable to close the factory and move it to a different country or a different state,

“你要考虑的不是关厂或者迁址去其他国家或者其他州是否有利可图”

you’ve got to think of the effect on all your stakeholders.”

“你得考虑关厂对所有利益攸关方的影响”

That’s a fundamental change in American capitalism.

这在根本上有别于美国资本主义的常识

So it changes the role of companies in a way that I think sort of moves them in a not good direction.

它试图带来公司角色的变化,在我看来是朝着错误的方向

Because once you have CEOs saying my job is not to maximize profit,

因为一旦有CEO说“我的职责不再是利润最大化”

my job is to be central planners and decide what’s good for everybody,

“我的职责是做好中央计划,从集体利益出发做决定”

well then who are they really responsible to?

那他们究竟是在对谁负责?

If you have three or four different masters, who’s really your master?

如果你有三、四个领导,谁是你真正的领导?

And it’s really hard to hold CEOs accountable if they can always say

对CEO的问责会变得非常困难,因为他们总是可以把

oh, I know this didn’t maximize profits,

“我知道这不能让利润最大化”

but it’s benefitting labor or it’s benefitting the environment or they have some other reason.

“但是这有利于劳工,有利于环境”等等作为借口

They have sort of complete discretion to do whatever they feel like.

他们等于是拥有完全的自由裁量权,想干嘛就干嘛

What about the counter-argument that the current system incentivizes them too much

那反方观点又如何呢?他们认为现行体系会过度激励CEO的短视

to worry about quarter to quarter, short-term profits and not be responsible in terms of longer-term?

令他们把精力集中在逐季的短期利润,而对长期发展不负责任?

I’m not convinced by that.

这种观点并不令我信服

Because if they’re really, they’re not thinking about the long-term profitability, that’s going to tend to depress the stock price.

因为如果他们真的不考虑长期回报,股价就会下跌

Some private equity guy is going to come in there and throw out the management.

一些私募股权基金会杀进来,踹走管理层

It’s usually that markets are sensitive to it.

市场对此高度敏感

Yeah, the whole private equity guys are there

对啊,整个私募股权基金行业存在的意义

to basically take over companies that are badly run and make them more profitable.

就是为了接手经营不善的公司,让它们扭亏为盈

Now I know those are evil in some people’s eyes.

我知道在有些人眼里这是不义之事

Yeah, maybe they’re just taking them over to strip them of their assets and sell them back quickly.

对,也许他们接管公司就是为了剥离资产,然后迅速转手卖掉

But that’s only a profitable thing to do if the assets aren’t being used well.

但那是在资产没有被妥善利用的前提下,唯一能够赚钱的方法

I mean, if assets are being used well, then they’re not going to strip them.

如果资产能得到妥善利用,他们才不会剥离资产

They’re going to try to figure out how to make them more profitable.

他们会试着寻找更加有利可图的方法

So you’re a pretty firm defender of the kind of, more or less, the current system of incentives and rewards in terms of corporate governance.

所以你多多少少是对现行企业治理激励体系持肯定态度的

You don’t think there’s a big crisis.

你不认为这蕴藏什么重大危机

No, I don’t.

 

我确实不这么认为

But I think we could create one if we really try to change the rules, which Elizabeth Warren has proposed.

但我觉得如果我们真的按伊丽莎白·沃伦的提议改变规则,反而会惹出乱子

You think that would really be a problem? You could just end up –

你觉得她的提议才是祸端?按她说的做反而会——

I think so.

我是这么认为的

I mean, I think it would be very hard to know how to run a company

如果有人突然通知你,公司有五个不同的利益攸关方

if all of a sudden you’re told you have these five different stakeholders

你得把他们每一方的利益都纳入考量

and you have to take them all into account

公司的经营会变得非常困难

and you the CEO get to weight the importance of one stakeholder versus the importance of another stakeholder.

而你作为CEO还得判断各个利益攸关方孰轻孰重

 

 

 

My colleague, Jonathan Last, had a piece where he went through a little bit of the history of WeWork

我的同事乔纳森·拉斯特写过一篇文章,梳理了WeWork的发家史

and said that’s why people are for Elizabeth Warren.

声称这正是人们支持伊丽莎白·沃伦的原因

There’s something wrong with our capitalism

这样一家充斥着荒唐泡沫的公司居然能够存在

if we have this kind of ludicrous bubble in one company

毫无责任心可言的创始人携上亿美元全身而退

and then the guy walks away with hundreds of millions of dollars when he seems to be totally irresponsible and stuff.

说明我们的资本主义一定哪里出了问题

I mean, what’s your answer to that?

你对此作何回答?

I haven’t followed that particular situation.

我没有具体跟进这件事

No, I’m not stipulating that, either.

我也不是光指这一件事

I mean, the boards of directors have an important role to make sure that the management does do their job, which is maximize profit for the shareholder.

董事会的重要性在于确保管理层恪尽职守,即寻求股东利益最大化

And if the boards aren’t doing their job, we should figure out some way to reform that.

如果董事会失职,我们应当找出某种改革的方法

So I’m perfectly happy to think about corporate governance,

因此我非常愿意探讨企业治理方面的问题

but telling the managers oh, you’re not responsible to shareholders anymore;

但是通知经理人“你不再需要对股东负责”

this is only one of a list of people who you should care about.

“股东只是应当照顾到的一系列利益攸关方中的一员”

That strikes me as just a dangerous way to go.

在我看来是朝着危险的方向发展

And one answer to Jonathan’s point is, of course,

当然,回应乔纳森观点的一种答案是

You know what? People lost money on Wework

人们可能是在Wework上亏了钱

who are a bunch of investors who stupidly believed in some promises that were,

但这些投资者傻到去相信它做出的业绩承诺

probably should have been obvious if you looked at them more closely, were not sustainable.

只要仔细考察过Wework,就知道这些承诺很明显站不住脚

I mean, this is not quite true, because there are side effects, of course,

虽然这么说可能有些片面,毕竟还是会有其他副作用

and innocent third parties who get punished when a company goes under

比如一家公司的破产会造成无辜三方机构的损失

and index fund that have a little bit of money in that.

指数基金也可能有一点被动持仓

But on the whole, it was willing investors who lost.

不过总的来说,亏钱的投资者是愿赌服输

And I suppose that is something, the point people don’t make enough, I think.

我想人们在讨论投资损失的时候,常会忽略这一点

When you see these headlines and it’s an outrage, how could that happen?

这样的新闻总是让人怒火中烧,质问怎么会发生这种事?

Well, it happened even that these fraud – obviously fraud is illegal and stuff,

但它就是发生了,即使这些骗局——是显而易见的非法诈骗

but even the people who lost money on that fraudulent Silicon Valley medical company or whatever,

但即使是在那家硅谷医药公司骗局中上当亏钱的那些人

Thanatos or whatever it was –

叫Thanatos还是什么名字的——

Theranos.

叫Theranos

(屏幕上方注:Theranos曾是一家从事微创血检业务的生物科技独角兽公司,斯坦福肄业的创始人伊丽莎白·霍姆斯一度被誉为最年轻的女性亿万富翁)

Theranos.

对,叫Theranos

(屏幕上方注:但其检测流程与设备遭到广泛质疑,2016年Theranos旗下产品被FDA叫停,并对霍姆斯开出禁业处罚,2018年SEC更指控霍姆斯涉嫌诈骗)

But that wasn’t – right?

但这还是愿赌服输,不是吗?

That didn’t cost Middle America, really, I don’t think.

我记得没错的话,蒙受损失的也不是美国中产阶级

No, it was a bunch of rich investors, actually.

是的,受骗的投资者都是些富人

So the system worked, in a sense, right?

所以某种意义上,治理体系还是发挥了作用,不是吗?

Yeah. I think for –

是的

I mean there’s no question that there’s a role for government in dealing with corporate governance, things like fraud.

毫无疑问,对于诈骗这样的企业治理问题,政府应当参与处理

We should put people in jail for fraud.

诈骗犯应该去蹲监狱

That’s a good thing.

这是好事

So I mean, it’s not like I’m advocating for anarchy,

我无意倡导无政府状态

but I just don’t want to turn every CEO into a little central planner

但是我也不想看到一个个CEO被迫去做中央计划

trying to figure out what’s good for society overall.

绞尽脑汁去造福全社会

Yeah, that seems like a mistake.

对,看起来是不太行

 

 

 

And what else would worry you the most? So Elizabeth Warren takes over.

其他还有什么令你感到担忧?假设伊丽莎白·沃伦当选

Corporate governance, the wealth tax, I suppose is what you are saying –

企业治理,我想你还谈到了财富税——

The wealth tax – to be honest, I suspect the wealth tax will never actually happen,

财富税——说实话,我怀疑财富税永远不会付诸实施

only because the Ways and Means Committee will look into it.

因为它过不了美国众议院筹款委员会这一关

(屏幕上方注:众议院筹款委员会是美国国会众议院最重要的下属委员会之一,负责税收、贸易等事务)

They’ll start studying it and say this is not such a good idea.

他们一上来就能得出结论:这可不是什么好主意

There’s other ways to tax the rich, by the way, than the wealth tax.

顺便说一句,除了财富税,自有其他方法对富人征税

There’s things like closing the carried interest loophole and there’s some other things we can do.

例如封堵附带权益漏洞等其他可行的方式

I’m not particularly in favor of raising the capital gains rate or the income tax rate,

我不是很看好提高资本利得税率或所得税率

but that strikes me as sort of less problematic than, say, the wealth tax.

但是我觉得上述两种方式带来的麻烦比财富税少得多

So I think there’s other things you could do to increase taxes on the wealthy, which she’ll do.

因此自有其他方法提高富人的税赋,她会选择走这条路

And the question is the medical system.

问题在于医疗体系

I mean, to me Medicare for All is a very radical step.

在我看来,全民医保是非常激进的一步

We have a medical system that works well for most people, it’s the engine of medical innovation in the world, really.

我们的医疗体系惠及多数公民,可以说它是全球医疗创新的引擎

And if we go in the direction of Medicare for All –

如果我们朝着全民医保的方向迈进——

we can probably save money in the short run, but we’re also going to reduce the incentives for technological innovation.

短期内我们可能节省了开支,但是同时也削弱了技术创新的激励

We could sort of control the drug prices, for example.

例如,我们似乎能管控住药品价格

Other countries do that.

其他国家也这么做

But if we do that, we’re the biggest market now,

但是我们是当今全球最大的医疗市场

if we do that, there will certainly be less innovation and new drugs.

我们这么做会阻碍医疗创新与新药研发的步伐

And so if you think about the long-term, your children and grandchildren,

因此从长远考虑,想想你的子孙

what’s going to make their lives better, medical innovation is probably at the top of the list.

届时什么才能提高他们的生活质量?医疗创新大概会位居榜首

So we don’t want to reduce the incentive for that.

所以我们不能削弱医疗创新的激励

 

 

 

It does seem to me, in general, that people on Right and Left, that is really what the Trump Right and the Elizabeth Warren Left have in common is

在我看来,左右两派,尤其是特朗普右派与伊丽莎白·沃伦左派的共同点在于

I think a total lack of appreciation for innovation, enterprise, growth and what makes that possible.

他们对创新、创业、增长以及令这一切成为可能的因素缺乏最基本的认识

Yes.

是的

And it doesn’t automatically happen.

这些都不是凭空产生的

And there are some aspects of what make it possible that are sort of not so beautiful.

而令这一切成为可能的因素中,总有一些不那么光彩

They have like side effects that aren’t so nice and some unpleasant people get rich

比如说不那么美好的副作用,一些人品不好的人赚到了钱

because they get lucky and it’s being at the right place at the right time or whatever and it’s not really their –

因为他们恰巧在正确的时间身处正确的地点,并非他们自己天赋禀异——

they don’t deserve it quite the same way that someone who invents a genuinely life-saving drug so on and so forth.

与发明救命神药的人相比,他们有些德不配位

But they don’t understand kind of what could –

但是左右两派似乎并不明白,如果——

yeah, how much you would give up if you started to have a system that didn’t award innovation in various ways.

如果经济体系不再以各种方式犒赏创新,他们会失去多少东西

Yeah, the economist Joseph Schumpeter writing nearly a century ago talked a lot about this.

是的。近一个世纪前,经济学家约瑟夫·熊彼特曾深入探讨过这一话题

That it’s basically creative destruction that’s driving the standard of living higher.

实质上是创造性破坏在不断地提高生活水平

And the process of creative destruction does give monopolies to innovators in the short run

而创造性破坏的过程确实会在短期内给予创新者一定的垄断地位

until some other innovator comes through and replaces their innovation with a better innovation.

直到其他创新者迎头赶上,以更优质的创新替代原有创新

So yes, there’s dynamics where people seem to get very rich and sometimes things get very expensive, like drug prices because of that.

因此是的,确实存在发明家暴富、药价飞涨之类的市场动态

But we have patents on drugs for a reason.

但是我们保护药品专利是有原因的

That’s a policy decision.

这是一个政策决定

We want to give people patents to incentivize innovation.

我们期望通过颁发专利激励创新

And then when we grant them this monopoly,

既然我们给予了发明家垄断地位

we shouldn’t be appalled that they charge monopoly prices

我们就不应为他们开出的垄断价格感到震惊

because we’ve decided as a society to give them that monopoly for a good reason.

因为我们当初作为一个社会整体给予他们垄断地位,是有正当理由的

 

 

 

Yeah, if we want to deal with particular drugs, we can subsidize them or whatever, I suppose.

如果我们想调控特定药品的价格,大可通过补贴等形式实现

Yes.

是的

Yeah, Schumpeter would be worth really having – both for the creative destruction argument,

熊彼特确实值得一提——不仅仅是出于创造性破坏的观点

but also for the capitalism, socialism, democracy argument.

还有他对资本主义、社会主义和民主制度的论述

The extent to which people lose an understanding of capitalism once capitalism starts to succeed

尤其是考虑到资本主义胜出之后,人们慢慢丧失了对资本主义的理解

and lose an understanding of its preconditions.

丧失了对资本主义先决条件的理解

Yes, my understanding is that Schumpeter thought we would eventually drift towards socialism inevitably.

是的,不过照我对熊彼特的理解,他曾认为我们将不可避免地滑向社会主义

Yes, out of a kind of – it just shows that I should go and reread it, too – but a certain kind of complacency, almost, right? And sort of –

好吧,我该去重读熊彼特了——但人们确实有点怠惰了,不是吗?

Yeah, I don’t think he applauded it.

对,我不是说他对社会主义持赞许态度

I just think he seemed to think that we were drifting in that direction.

我是说他指出过我们在滑向社会主义

Yeah, he maybe wouldn’t have been so surprised by, really, by Elizabeth Warren, Donald Trump in the sense that –

对,他若再世恐怕不会惊讶于伊丽莎白·沃伦和唐纳德·特朗普的言行

and taking it for granted after all these years.

以及这么多年后人们把资本主义视为理所当然的态度

I guess that’s what strikes me, too.

我想这也是令我震惊之处

I see this in foreign policy, too.

在外交政策上也能看到这种迹象

You talk about the last 70 years and people “Well of course, all these good things were going to happen anyway.

你谈到过去的70年里,人们觉得“这些好事不论如何都会发生”

We weren’t going to have a Third World War, we weren’t going to have, you know, 1920s, ’30s type recession.

“不会爆发第三次世界大战,也不会1920、30年代式的经济衰退”

We weren’t going to have this, we weren’t going to have that.

“这个那个历史灾难都不会重演”

The Soviet Bloc was eventually going to tumble.

“苏联集团终将分崩离析”

India was going to be a prosperous nation instead of being on the brink of starvation all the time.

“印度终将成为一个繁荣的国度,而不会一直挣扎在温饱线上”

But just take that for granted.

“这一切都是理所当然”

And now we’re going to be extremely upset about a bunch of other things that didn’t quite work out as well as we like.”

“而现在只要有那么一点事情没有遂我们的愿,我们就要大发雷霆”

It does seem to me like people don’t appreciate the –

在我看来,人们似乎并没有认识到——

Yeah, I think the more, the more international view one has, the more historical view one has,

是的,我觉得一个人拥有的国际视野越宽广、历史视角越渊博

the more appreciative one should be of where the United States is today.

对当今美国的认识就越充分

Because yeah, things aren’t perfect.

因为世上没有十全十美

We have aspirations that are perhaps better than the reality we’re living.

也许我们有比现实生活更美好的期许

But compared to the international experience, compared to the historical experience, we’re actually not in a terrible place.

但是较之国际与历史经验,美国目前的情况其实不算糟糕

And you wouldn’t know that from our rhetoric from either side, really.

但从左右两派的话术中你根本感受不到这一点

And somehow the rhetoric can then become self-fulfilling, right?

然后这些话术居然变得可以自我实现了,对吧?

Because it could then push us towards solutions that really would sort of damage our situation.

因为这些话术驱使我们采取的解决方案,到头来反而会对经济造成危害

That’s right.

没错

One of my favorite books about the intersection between politics and economics is The Myth of the Rational Voter by Bryan Caplan.

我最喜欢的一本有关政经跨界的书是布莱恩·卡普兰的《理性选民的神话》

And what Bryan does is he basically documents that the typical voter has a lot of systematically wrong beliefs about how the economy works.

布莱恩在书中指出,一般选民对经济运行原理存在系统性的错误认知

Has no particular incentive to correct those wrong beliefs

考虑到其选票起到决定性作用的概率很低

given that the probability of their vote being decisive is so small.

选民也没有动力纠正自己的错误认知

And politicians who are hyper-rational in terms of getting elected

而那些本来高度理性的政客,为了能在选举中胜出

are going to then shape their policy proposals to appeal to the systematically mistaken voter.

会重塑他们的政策提议,以迎合那些系统性谬误的选民

And that seems to be playing out in spades right now.

而在当下这一现象似乎尤其严重

And I guess the political science version of that is also the concentrated-, you know, benefits-versus-diffuse-costs thing.

我猜这种现象的政治学版本,就是“集中收益vs. 分散成本”理论

(屏幕上方注:“concentrated benefits versus diffuse cost”,公共选择学派的核心理论,指在一个集体中收益集中的少数利益往往会胜过成本分散的多数利益,而且集体规模越大,这种“搭便车”问题就越严重)

Yes, yes.

是的

So this group benefits – a steel plant closes and 500 people lose their job.

比方说一个炼钢厂倒闭,导致500人下岗

The thousands, tens of thousands, hundreds of thousand people who benefit from generally lower consumer prices on all the goods et cetera,

但在成千上万的人可能因此在各类商品上享受到更低的消费价格

you don’t think – you don’t think when you go buy something that hey, it’s lucky there’s international trade

而当你去买东西的时候,你不会产生“有国际贸易真好啊”

because it’s really making this refrigerator more affordable or something.

“是国际贸易让这台冰箱这么便宜”之类的想法

Yeah, he documents, Bryan documents a variety of different biases that voters have.

对,布莱恩书中就记录了选民的各种不同偏误                   

One of them is an anti-market bias.

其中之一便是反市场偏误

Another one is an anti-foreign bias and another one is a general pessimism bias.

还有排外偏误以及一般性的悲观偏误

That people are generally more pessimistic than they should be.

人们一般会高估负面事件发生在自己身上的概率

And it’s one of the great things about teaching economics, especially at the freshman level,

教授经济学课程特别是大一新生课程有一点好处

is you’re helping to educate the next generation of voters, specifically insulate them from some of the automatic biases that they might have.

那就是你在帮助教育下一代选民,帮助他们消除先天固有的偏误

Is that happening?

有改观吗?(笑)

Well, you know, I’ve thought for the longest time that introductory economics should not be a college level course;

我一直都觉得经济学入门课不应该是一门大学课程

it should be a high school level course.

它应该是一门高中课程

Because much in the same way that everybody takes a year of American history in high school

这在很大程度上和每个人都要在高中修一年美国历史是同样的道理

because to be a smart voter you need to know a little bit of American history.

因为要成为一名聪明的选民,你得懂点美国历史

I think to be a smart voter, you need to know a little bit of economics.

我认为要成为一名聪明的选民,你还得懂点经济学

So what we teach in Econ-101 really should be taught to juniors and seniors in high school.

所以我们在经济学入门课上教授的内容,应该教给高二、高三学生

I don’t think it’s too hard.

我不觉得经济学很难

It can certainly be taught at that level.

高中学生绝对可以接受

And I think we’d have a better body politic if everybody had gone through that.

如果人人接受这样的教育,政坛的风气会好上许多

Just the concept of trade-offs and no free lunch.

“权衡取舍”与“没有免费午餐”两个概念足矣

Exactly.

没错

Very basic things would be healthy, I think.

学点最基础的信息就很好

 

 

 

But it is striking.

但是现状还是令人震惊

We’re better educated than ever, I suppose, as a country, and I would argue people are more credulous than, to some degree, than ever –

我想,美国人民的受教育程度比以往更好,但却比以往更轻信他人——

not than ever, but than they were 20 or 30 years ago, perhaps,

也不能把话说死,大概和20、30年前相比吧

about various promises on the Left and Right.

人们更轻信左右两派五花八门的承诺

In a surprising way, you would think, with all the information that’s out there and so forth.

你会惊讶于人们在信息如此充沛的时代反而更容易受骗

We’ll see.

让我们拭目以待吧

I mean, right now the Democratic Party, they are sort of playing out between the left lane and the moderate lane.

目前民主党内还在左派和温和派之间拉扯

And I think it’s still a 50/50 at this point which lane is going to prevail.

两边的获胜概率大致五五开

And I suppose whether Trump really ends up dominating the party or

那我想问,你是觉得特朗普真的会在共和党内占据主导

whether it’s a kind of temporary thing with a kind of cult of personality and so forth.

还是说这只是人格崇拜造成的暂时现象?

I’d love to believe it’s a temporary thing just due to cult of personality

我宁愿相信这是人格崇拜造成的暂时现象

But watching Brexit it makes me wonder that it’s not.

但看着英国脱欧让我不禁觉得可能并非如此

Because the Brexit phenomenon in the UK is not all that different from the Trump phenomenon here.

因为英国的脱欧现象与美国的特朗普现象相差无异

It’s this xenophobia, general suspicion of elites.

是排外情绪,是民众对精英的怀疑

So I think this sense of dissatisfaction that affected American voters I think affected a lot of the British voters.

所以影响美国选民的这种不满情绪也影响了很多英国选民

And I think much in the same way that a lot of Americans are thinking that maybe this Donald Trump thing is not working out so well after all,

而且和很多美国人在想唐纳德·特朗普这事干得不怎么样类似

I think a lot of the Brits are thinking maybe this Brexit thing is not working out so well after all.

我觉得许多英国人也在想脱欧这事干得不怎么样

But also what happens with that, I think psychologists would say that one reaction to that is gee, I better rethink that.

但我觉得心理学家会说,人们的一种反应是“哎呀,我应该再想想的”

Another reaction is a kind of stubborn sticking to your guns and even doubling down in a certain way.

另一种反应则是冥顽不化,变本加厉地固执己见

Yes.

是的

Blaming this elite or that group for not letting it work out the way it was supposed to, right?

谴责精英或者其他团体,斥责他们从中作梗,对吧?

Yes, one of the developments in economics in the past 30 years has been the rise of behavioral economics.

是的,过去30年间,经济学的学科发展之一是行为经济学的兴起

And one of the big findings in behavioral economics, originally came from psychology, is confirmation bias.

行为经济学的一大发现是源于心理学的确认偏误

The tendency to interpret evidence to confirm what you already thought because changing your mind is difficult for people.

人们倾向于片面解读证据来确认自己的成见,因为人们难以改变自身想法

And it’s kind of a useful thing to know that

了解这些偏误益处多多

because once you sort of recognize all these biases that the behavioral economists have documented,

因为一旦你认识到行为经济学家记录下来的所有这些偏误

you start seeing that in yourself.

你就会在自己身上发现这些偏误

And it sort of forces you to say huh, am I interpreting it this way just for confirmation bias?

它会强迫你去思考“啊,我会这么解读这件事是不是因为存在确认偏误?”

So I think it would be useful for people to learn that in this new high school course we just designed,

我们在新的高中课程中设计了行为经济学课程,它会对学生大有裨益

to learn about some of the decision making biases so maybe they can counter-balance them.

通过学习一些决策偏误,也许他们能有意识地去抵御偏误的影响

I like that.

那再好不过

Well, at least they can learn about, re-think some of their biases

至少他们能够学习偏误类型,重新思考自身的偏误

and hopefully because of this conversation and others like it.

希望本期对谈和这类节目能给他们带来同样的启示

And thank you for taking the time to join me today, Greg.

感谢你抽出时间接受我的采访,格雷戈

And thank you for really bringing, I think, fairness and clarity and fair-mindedness to this discussion.

感谢你为这场讨论带来公平、清晰和开明的思考

I really wish more people thought clearly about all these issues

我殷切希望更多人能够想清楚这些话题

and as you say, didn’t simply either indulge hopes or go with confirmation bias or whatever.

并如你所言,拒绝沉溺于希望或坠入确认偏误的深渊

Well thank you, Bill.

谢谢你,比尔

It’s a pleasure.

我很荣幸

Thanks, Greg.

谢谢你,格雷戈

And thank you for joining us on CONVERSATIONS.

感谢你做客“对谈”节目

评论
Mona
2020/03/24 22:38
这篇文章实在太长了
竹林中
2020/03/16 23:54